The Dynamics of Sovereign Default

One has to understand the dynamics of sovereign default. For example, what are the signs of the crash?

A set of articles on sovereign debt.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/sovereign-debt-series-summary.html

Part 1: How Large is the Outstanding Value of Sovereign Bonds?

Part 2. How Often Have Sovereign Countries Defaulted in the Past?

Part 2B: More on Historic Sovereign Default Research

Part 3. What are the Market Estimates of the Probabilities of Default?

Part 4. What are Total Estimated Losses on Sovereign Bonds Due to Default?

UPDATE on Sunday: Part 5A. What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? $15 Trillion of Sovereign Debt in Default

Coming soon: Part 5B. What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? More Things Can Go Badly: Credit Default Swaps, Interest Swaps and Options, Foreign Exchange.

From Calculated Risk:

So, who defaults? A simple method is to choose the 45% of countries with large sovereign debts (over $50 billion) that currently have the highest cumulative probability of default. They are assumed to default in the same order as implied by their cumulative probability of default at 6/30/10 from CMA: Greece, Argentina (again), Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Indonesia, Belgium, South Africa, Thailand, South Korea, Poland, Brazil, Mexico and Malaysia.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/part-5a-what-happens-if-things-go.html