Is China Poised to Repeat Japan’s Recession Experience in the 1990s?

From Worldcrunch:

Based on the data of the 2000 census as well as the new census, China’s comprehensive national strength, from the viewpoint of its demographic structure, is currently at a historical peak. The working-age group of those 15-64 years, has reached almost 1 billion people, an all-time high, with the elderly dependency ratio less than 12%, and the general elderly dependency (ratio of the non-labor population to labor population) only 34%. In other words, China has never been less burdened by a non-labor population.

But again from the viewpoint of the demographical structure, China is set to repeat Japan’s economic recession experience of the 1990s. The difference is Japan became rich before growing old, while China is growing old before even getting rich. The average GDP of Japan today is above $40,000, while it is still just $4,000 in China.

Also, perhaps more importantly, China’s labor age group of the 15-64 years old will reach its peak in 2013, and then start to decrease. Changes to the 19-22 years old age group are key to a country’s demographic health, because they are the most active part of the population and what business needs most. In 2009, this age group attained an historical high of 100 million but will rapidly decrease to 58 million by 2019, a drop of 43% over just 10 years.

http://www.worldcrunch.com/china-cooking-books-its-census-data/3017