Monday, January 9, 2012

Sweden Showing How to Cut Debt and Weather the Recession

From Bloomberg:

Sweden faces a difficult year, like every other European economy, but unlike the rest of the European Union, it’s equipped to cope. There are lessons here, especially for the EU’s other non-euro countries.

Scandinavia’s biggest economy will see growth slow to less than 1 percent in 2012, down from an impressive 4.5 percent in 2011, according to the National Institute of Economic Research. Sweden relies heavily on exports to the rest of Europe, and the EU’s protracted economic crisis will set it back.

The value of monetary independence is the first and most important Swedish lesson. Sweden stayed out of the euro system when the currency was introduced in 1999, and in the past several years, the government has used this monetary flexibility to the full.

Hence Sweden’s second lesson: Fiscal stimulus isn’t a necessary condition for economic recovery. Through the course of the recent recession, the government’s cyclically adjusted budget stayed in surplus. As a result, Swedish government debt stands at less than 40 percent of gross domestic product, among the lowest of any rich country.

Note, therefore, that this isn’t the old Swedish model. Taxes on labor have been cut and the country’s once-lavish welfare state is being squeezed.

This suggests a third lesson, political rather than economic: Fiscal conservatism can be popular. Sweden is reluctant to put its hard-won fiscal strength at risk. Rightly so. Sweden is better placed than most to deal with the further economic setbacks the EU seems determined to dispense.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-05/view-sweden-shows-europe-how-to-cut-debt.html

No comments:

Post a Comment