The Incredible Shrinking Half-Life Of Central Bank Action

The following chart by SocGen shows why the U.S. execise of QEs wouldn't work.  Again, when would it stop by whom?

From Zero Hedge:

It seems the market - or the collection of pre-programmed heuristic biases that make up the equity investing public (and machines) - is slowly but surely realizing the confidence trick that is the Fed's Quantitative Easing programs. The following chart should clarify - to anyone placing their gambling chips on the hopes of another round of easing from the Fed - why the game is up. To wit, the reverse geometric progression of S&P 500 performance during each Fed action: QE1 +50%, QE2 +30%, Twist +18%, QE3 & Twist +8%... so QE4 +4%, QE5 +2%, and QE6 +1%...



Chart: SocGen

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/incredible-shrinking-half-life-central-bank-action

Charles Hugh Smith: Anticipating the Devolution of Big Government

From Zero Hedge:

With the US elections approaching next week, as well as the threat of another fiscal cliff showdown looming, we look at how the expansive Central State has come to dominate both private society (i.e., the community) and the marketplace, to the detriment of the nation’s social and economic stability. We examine six critical dynamics that will lead to the devolution of Peak Government.

Massive Borrowing
Institutionalized Mal-Investment
Erosion of Trust in Government
Diminishing Returns on Public Debt
The Hidden Tax of Inflation and the Institutionalization of Falsification
Self-Reinforcing Feedback Loops of Self-Interest

"Governments, desperate for more revenues, ignore public resentment and loss of trust, which only deepens the disconnect between those in government and the public.  And the private citizenry sees a lack of accountability, soaring public debt, accounting trickery, political dysfunction, and mal-investment of public funds as the hallmarks of their government."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-30/anticipating-devolution-big-government

Eric Sprott On America's Great Endangered Species: "The 99%"

From Zero Hedge:

Other than some obligatory arrests for disorderly conduct, the Occupy Wall Street movement celebrated its one year anniversary this past September with little fanfare. While the movement seems to have lost momentum, at least temporarily, it did succeed in showcasing the growing sense of unease felt among a large segment of the US population – a group the Occupy movement shrewdly referred to as “the 99%”. The 99% means different things to different people, but to us, the 99% represents the US consumer. It represents the majority of Americans who are neither wealthy nor impoverished and whose spending power makes up approximately 71% of the US economy. It is the purchasing power of this massive, amorphous group that drives the US economy forward. The problem, however, is that four years into a so-called recovery, this group is still being financially squeezed from every possible angle, making it very difficult for them to maintain their standard of living, let alone increase their levels of consumption.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-30/eric-sprott-americas-great-endangered-species-99

When ¥11 Trillion Is Not Enough: Japan's QE 9 Disappoints, Halflife Zero, Time For QE 10

From Zero Hedge:

It was only yesterday that we pointed out the ever decreasing halflives of central bank interventions. We are grateful that none other than the biggest intervention basket case of all came out and proved us 100% correct, when the BOJ announced none other than QE 9 just one month after the impact from QE 8 fizzled about 8 hours after it was disclosed. This time around, the destructive "benefit" to the JPY was negative from the first second, resulting in the first instance of monetary easing that.. wasn't. Japan just came up with a brand new New Normal concept: tightening through easing, when its ¥11 trillion intervention proved to be woefully insufficient for a market addicted to ever more liquidity injections.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-30/when-%C2%A511-trillion-not-enough-japans-qe-9-disappoints-halflife-zero-time-qe10

John Aziz: Wealth Inequality in America

From Zero Hedge:

Plenty of talk has gone into the rising income inequality that America has experienced since the early 1970s. But income is merely a wealth flow, and the truer measure of equality is the distribution of net worth and financial wealth (the wealth stock).

The historical change is clear: the bottom 80% have gotten considerably poorer both in financial wealth and in terms of total net worth.

This widening gap between the rich and everyone else is not a case of people being rewarded for their talents. Some income and wealth disparity is an inevitable effect of the market process. But the reality of today is more of a case of oligarchs harnessing the power of government bailouts, monetary policy, corporate subsidies, pork, quantitative easing, barriers to entry, favourable regulation, SuperPACs, Citizens United, lobbyists, market-rigging (etc, etc, etc) to get whatever they want.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-29/guest-post-wealth-inequality-america

Korean Won Rises to 13-Month High (원화가치 이상 급등)

When the U.S. Fed  continues to dilute the USD and the Japanese government engage in more monetary stimulus after 8 failed iterations of quantitative easings, there is little the Korean government can do.  Again, therein lies the fundamental flaw of the export-focused mercantilist growth pardigm.

From Bloomberg:

South Korea’s won strengthened to a 13-month high on speculation exporters sold dollars to convert their overseas earnings as the month-end nears. Government bonds were little changed.

Government reports due this week are forecast to show industrial production increased in September by the most in three months, while exports shrank 0.5 percent in October from a year earlier after a 2 percent contraction the previous month, according to separate Bloomberg surveys. The Bank of Japan (8301) meets tomorrow after unexpectedly expanding its asset-purchase fund on Sept. 19.

“It was a slow trading day, and the won’s gains were pushed mostly by South Korean exporters selling the greenback to convert currency ahead of Japan’s central bank meeting,” said Jude Noh, a Seoul-based chief currency trader at Suhyup Bank. Japanese “policy makers may announce further monetary stimulus,” which will strengthen the won further, he said.

The won climbed 0.1 percent to 1,095.90 per dollar at the close in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency touched 1,094.50 earlier, the strongest level since Sept. 14, 2011. One-month implied volatility for the won, a measure of exchange-rate swings used to price options, fell 18 basis points, or 0.18 percentage point, to 5.72 percent.

South Korean exporters are facing difficulties because of the won’s gains, President Lee Myung Bak said today, according to the transcript of a speech broadcast on radio. Manufacturers’ confidence fell for the second straight month, a central bank report showed. An index measuring expectations for November fell to 70 from 72 in October, the Bank of Korea said in a statement in Seoul. Any number below 100 indicates that pessimists outnumber optimists.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/won-rises-to-13-month-high-as-u-s-growth-beat-estimates.html

동아일보로부터:

http://news.donga.com/3/all/20121029/50481441/1

"The time is coming when men and women will not accept the whole of the gospel. They will want things that please them, and they will collect teachers who will tell them what they want to hear. They will no longer listen to the truth, but will wander off after man-made fictions. For yourself, stand fast in all that you are doing, meeting whatever hardship this may involve. Witness to the word and fulfill the work that God has given to you."
2 Timothy 4:3-5

Stephen Roach: "Korea’s Economic Resilience Weakening"

The regular readers would know that Dr. Stephen Roach is not saying anything new here.  We've discussed the flaws of the export-dependent economy based on mercantilism many times, not to mention the current state of the global economy.  Korea's trade surplus has kept its economy going, masking the reality.  We also pointed out how Korea could have quickly recovered from the 1997 financial crisis, at least on the surface.  Besides, we discussed the impact of the 1985 Plaza Accord on Japan.

From Korea Times:

The Korean economy is expected to stay in a trough for a considerable period of time due to weakening resilience, according to a renowned global economist, Thursday.

Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, said Thursday that it will take some time for the Korean economy to recover fully from the subdued growth because the lingering sluggish global economy still remains an obstacle for the export-driven country.

The former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia said that Korea quickly weathered the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, but this global crisis will impact more strongly on the nation, whose trade volume accounts for more than 80 percent of its gross domestic product.

“The Global output problem has more impact on Korea than was the case in the late 1990s. The protracted sluggish global economy is actually more challenging for export-driven economies like Korea than the developed countries,” said Roach at a conference in Seoul hosted by the Korea Institute of Finance.

The Yale professor, meanwhile, criticized both U.S. President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney, for making China a scapegoat for their country’s economic woes. He said the problem of the world’s biggest economy is that Americans do not save enough, and not that China manipulates its currency rate.

He argued that the Chinese yuan, in fact, has appreciated by more than 30 percent to the dollar since July 2005, a big change in the short term. The U.S. economist said that China is going in the right direction in terms of currency policy, citing the example of Japan, which made a huge mistake by listening to the West in the Plaza Accord in 1985, which appreciated the yen drastically in a short time. The consequence was a longstanding economic downturn for the world’s third-largest economy, he said.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2012/10/123_123130.html

한국기업 설비 투자 감소: 제조업에서 두드러져

Korea's manufacturing is in a state of decline.  Not only is the global economy in contraction, there is outsourced manufacturing by chaebols like Samsung and Hyundai shipping its manufacturing overseas. The outsourced manufacturing has screwed the middle class, which has far-reaching consequences for the Korean society.  Korea can't afford any reduction in its already waning production capacity.  Again, Korea has to stop chaebols from shifting its manufacturing overseas.  Korea should have kept the manufacturing under wraps.

조선비즈로부터:

한국 기업의 투자 감소는 제조업일수록 더 심하다는 데 문제의 심각성이 있다. 그동안 제조업으로 먹고살던 한국 경제가 급속히 나빠지고 있다는 얘기다.

통계청에 따르면 제조업의 기계 수주 증가율(설비 투자 증가율)은 지난 8월 전년 동기 대비 34.8%나 줄어드는 등 올 2월부터 8월까지 한 번도 빠지지 않고 마이너스 증가율을 기록했다. 작년 전체적으로 전년 대비 12.8% 증가하고 2010년엔 32.3% 늘었던 것을 감안하면 올해를 기점으로 투자 규모가 크게 위축되는 것이다.

이렇게 된 이유는 대내외적인 경기 불확실성 때문이다. 경기 상황이 상저하추(上低下墜·하반기에 추락의 골이 더 깊어지는 것)로 흘러가자 나갈 돈을 움켜쥐고 투자 계획을 거둬들이는 등 기업 현장은 혼돈 속으로 빠져들고 있다.

IT·자동차 관련 대기업이 해외에 투자를 집중하는 바람에 국내 투자율이 부진한 점도 있다는 지적이다. 현대·기아차는 올해 공장 신·증설에 투입된 2조원가량의 3분의 2 이상을 해외 공장에 투자했다. 현대·기아차의 한 생산 담당 임원은 "국내 공장을 더 늘리고 싶어도 강성 노조와 생산 효율 때문에 도저히 늘릴 수 없는 상황"이라고 말했다.

http://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/10/27/2012102700237.html

UBS: Erosion of BoJ Independence: “Fonetary-Policy”?

One has to wonder if Japan has any monetary independence all along.  The Japanese leadership has tagged along the U.S.  Japan is the second largest holder of the U.S. treasuries behind China.

The case of Japan should concern us all in that Korea and China was modeled after Japan, adopting the similar interventions.

From Zero Hedge:

There is a possibility that the realm of monetary policy could increasingly merge with that of fiscal policy and national debt management policy. Globally, UBS believes, central banks are edging down monetary policy paths that can be viewed as increasingly backstopping budget deficits as lawmakers of respective governments continue to fail to make progress toward fiscal consolidation. As we have vociferously stated, a progression down this road could lead to many unsavoury outcomes, as fiscal and monetary policies entwine themselves in an increasingly negative dynamic -  coining the term “Fonetary-policy” – fiscal policy plus monetary policy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-26/ubs-erosion-central-bank-independence

Visualizing China's Chain Reaction

China is the largest trading partner of Korea.  Due to the symbiotic relationship of the U.S./China, China could have risen so fast in the first place.  Both economies are running out of steam.

One can't really predict with a great deal of certainty what the future of China holds.  And yet, one thing seems to be sure: The Chinese political and economic structure can't continue in its present form.  The same is true for other countries as well.

From Zero Hedge:

As the saying goes, when China sneezes, the rest of the world catches the cold. So far, if one were to look at the macro-economic surprise indices for US, Europe, and China, it would appear that China's weakness was largely ignored by US and Europe which have notably 'outperformed' relative to expectations in the last two months. However, what is apparent is that this is a lead-lag relationship which the FT provides an excellent flow chart of how China's dominant ebbs and flows chain-react around the world's supply (and demand) chains. Furthermore, the successive peaks in economic cycles since 2009 have been lower and lower as even relatively minor shifts in China's domestic production, stockpiling, or spending can have big impacts on the other side of the world. As the IMF notes: "China can transmit real shocks widely, whether these originate domestically or elsewhere."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-25/visualizing-chinas-chain-reaction

Hugh Hendry: "I Have No Idea Where The Stock Market Is Going To Be"... But "I Am Long Gold And Short The S&P"

Hugh Hendry is worth a listen.

From Zero Hedge:

Other observations include the monetary impact of global mercantilism, where every country is desperately trying to crush its currency, which to Hendry means the possibility of a massive FX short squeeze is increasing.

Hendry says that $3 trillion in Fed monetization has not unleashed inflation. Yet. What would? It would be “another trillion number” which would come when the central bankers no longer fear that their legacy would be of those ushering in Weimar 2, which means an opportunity cost of even greater catastrophe. "Society is saying we need the most profound Lehman times X in order to allow the central banks to cross my Rubicon, to be revolutionary, and they can be only revolutionary when they have given up hope.” In other words things have to get so bad, deflation has to be such a threat, that everyone goes thermonuclear on their CTRL-P buttons.

He summarizes the macroeconomic situation which he sees as juxtaposing the “green shoots” in America, is offset by the “theater of the absurd” in Europe, but as usual focuses on his favorite macroeconomic topic: China: “Like Germany, they have been an operationally leveraged economy, but unlike Germany, have now adopted financial leverage- the sovereign financing of these unproductive investments, so now they have double jeopardy, and if we don’t have a sustained economic recovery I am very fearful of the events that may befall the Chinese.”

Next, Hendry touches on the politically sensitive topic of China selling US Treasurys, which he thinks is ludicrous, explaining that "US Treasuries are not an asset – you can’t sell it to protect yourself", because selling TSYs would lead to a surge in the renminbi, which in turn would crush Chinese exporting companies.

The bottom line for China, "whose medicine is its poison" is that it has little recourse: it can’t protect itself in a downside case with its $3 trillion in reserves, or by selling Treasurys, and on the other the impact of financial leverage would magnify any economic crash: “UK GDP peak to trough dropped 8%. In the US in 1931 it dropped 23%. That’s the leverage. Now am I sitting here with video cameras saying the Chinese economy is going to contract 23%? Of course not. But if we have coffee later, I may say something different.”

Hendry is long gold and short the S&P. "It was a great trade until 2008." It has been “profitably but less predictable” since the intervention of QE in 2009. “there is an observation that QE has fortified the S&P versus the performance of gold.”

And his brilliant conclusion: "I have resigned from the professional undertaking of coin flipping. I am not here to tell you where gold’s going to be. I have no idea. That’s my existentialism. I am a student of uncertainty, I have no idea where the stock market is going to be. So when I am creating trades in my portfolio for my clients, I am agnostic. I just want to enhance the probability that I make money come what may."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-25/hugh-hendry-i-have-no-idea-where-stock-market-going-be-am-long-gold-and-short-sp

Brandon Smith: Is The World Abandoning The U.S. Economy?

From Zero Hedge:

Go to any university, any center of equities trade, any meeting place for financial academia, any fiscal think tank, and they will tell you without the slightest hint of doubt in their eyes that the U.S. economy is essential to the survival of the world.  To even broach the possibility that the U.S. could be dropped or replaced as the central pillar of trade on the planet is greeted with sneers and even anger.  But let’s set aside what we think (or what we assume) we know about the American financial juggernaut and consider the sordid history of the money powerhouse myth. China’s incredible gold buying extravaganzas over the past few years indicate that they are indeed hedging against what they obviously expect will be devaluation in the dollar or multiple currencies around the world including the dollar.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-25/guest-post-world-abandoning-us-economy

An Hour Of Your Time Has Never Been Worth Less

From Zero Hedge:

Whether it's deleveraging, spare capacity, dollar debasement, productivity gains, or just plain old obesity, in real purchasing power terms, an hour of your time has never been worth less. In the 40 years since Nixon's 1971 fiat-fiasco, the value of the average hourly earnings for US citizens has dropped 90% in terms of Gold. The last time that our labor's efforts garnered such a low value saw a twenty year credit-blown releveraging (from 1980 to 2001) to save-us-all; we suspect that debt saturation will limit the ability of any central bank to create such a 'recovery' in labor-value once again. Since the peak in 2001, 60 minutes of your valuable time has lost 81% of its purchasing power! Is this what globalization looks like?


The average hourly earnings in ounces of Gold...


Charts: Bloomberg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-25/hour-your-time-has-never-been-worth-less

The 20 Fastest Growing Economies In The World

Again, one might want to see the bigger picture behind what's happening around the globe.

From Business Insider:

According to the International Monetary Fund, there is a 1 in 6 chance that global growth dips below 2% in 2013, which would throw advanced economies back into a recession.

But the IMF’s recently released World Economic Outlook, which includes economic growth forecasts for 185 countries, wasn’t completely negative.

We selected 20 countries with the highest projected compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2013 through 2017, based on the IMF’s estimates.

None of these countries are located in the Western Hemisphere – all are from Africa or Asia – which underscores that global economic growth will be driven by emerging markets and developing economies.

A cautionary note – this isn’t a list of the world’s best economies, or countries with the highest standards of living. Many of these countries start with extremely low levels of GDP, and as such have an easier time attaining a high growth rate over this selected period.

Some features of these countries:

• 10 are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, 8 in Asia (2 from the Commonwealth of Independent States), and 2 from the Middle East/North Africa;
• 10 are underdeveloped, as evidenced by little infrastructure and mass subsistence farming;
• 8 rely upon oil or gas as a key export; and
• 7 have law and order, corruption, or security issues as impediments to growth.

http://www.businessinsider.com/worlds-fastest-economies-2012-10#

Putting It Into Perspective: One Week Of QE 3 In Minimum Wage Job Terms

One might have to see the bigger picture behind the U.S. Fed policy.  This has had significant impacts not only on the U.S. but on many parts of the world.  Regardless of the specifics, it has hampered the middles class around the globe.  The questions is: when would the U.S. exercise stop?

From Zero Hedge:

By now everyone knows that as part of QEternity, Uncle Ben is currently monetizing $40 billion in MBS per month, a number which as we first forecast hours after its announcement and which everyone is now piling on to reaffirm, will rise to $85 billion in outright, unsterilized monetization beginning January 1, 2013 (as anything less would be seen as impllicit tightening in a market which now needs $85 billion in Fed Flow monthly simply not to collapse). This is fungible money which is going solely to benefit the banks, whose reserves with the Fed swell, and which proceeds can be used for virtually any purpose - from buying MBS (which they are doing) to 300x P/E stocks like AMZN - but not to be lent out to those desperately seeking loans? Why: one simple reason - the banks are already mired in legacy litigation from loans made during the last housing bubble (just see the hundreds of mortgage-related lawsuits Bank of Countrywide Lynch is a defendant in and you will get a sense of how bad it is) and the last thing they need is a repeat of that. And while the Fed has only one monetary easing pathway, which always goes through the banks, we wish to demonstrate to our readers what, in a thought experiment ignoring all the obvious practical considerations, the equivalent benefit to the general population would be if instead of being held by the banks and used to make the rich even richer, this money would bypass the banking syndicate and go straight to the US job seeker...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-24/putting-it-perspective-one-week-qe-3-minimum-wage-job-terms

Japanese Government Demands BOJ Do QE 9 One Month After Failed QE 8

From Zero Hedge:

Almost exactly a month ago, the BOJ surprised most analysts with an unexpected increase in its asset purchase agreement by JPY10 trillion bringing the total to JPY80 trillion. There was one small problem though: the entire impact of the additional easing fizzled in under half a day, or 9 hours to be precise. This was, as Art Cashin summarized the following day, Japan's failed QE 8. It is now a month later, and with nothing changed in the global race to debase status quo, the time has come for the BOJ to attempt QE 9. Or that's the case at least according to the toothless Japanese government, which has formally demanded that Shirakawa do a nine-peat of what has been a flawed policy response for over 30 years now, this time with another JPY 20 trillion, or double the last month's intervention. Because according to Japanese Senkei, it is now Japan's turn to pull a Chuck Schumer and demand even mor-er eternity-er QE out of monetary authority of the endlessly deflating country. In reverting to the Moore's law of failed monetarism, we expect that a QE 9 out of Japan will have the same halflife as QE 8, if indeed the program size is double the last. At which point it will again fizzle.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-22/japanese-government-demands-boj-do-qe-9-one-month-after-failed-qe-8

The Great Depression in Ten Pictures

From Jesse's Cafe;

I may provide some commentary for these charts later, but for now I wanted to gather them in one place for your viewing pleasure.

Some of them are from my previous blog site, when I was considering some of the policy decisions and data from the first Great Depression in the US. This study was from 1999 to 2001. It was fully fleshed out in my mind by Bernanke's (in)famous essay of 2002, The Fed Has a Printing Press. That pretty much cleared the air for me on the future investment path for gold.

Although I do not list it here, you may also be interesting in the posting, Why the Feds Seized the Gold in 1933. The purpose was to devalue the dollar AND to use the proceeds to recapitalize the banks that were remaining after the FDR bank holiday.

Since the US is not on a gold standard now, the Fed has no need for the gold. It can expand its balance sheet with a few keyclicks, as long as that is their policy decision. Any wide scale confiscation of private property at this point would be purely gratuitous and rather unlikely, recent hysteria not-withstanding.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.kr/2012/10/the-great-depression-in-ten-pictures.html

블로그에 올린 글들이 정상적으로 보이질 않네요.  일요일에 The Fallacy of Korea's Economic and Innovation Model이란 제목의 포스팅 올렸는데 여러분이 클릭해 주셨고 미국분이 코멘트도 달아주셨지만 블로그 화면엔 보이질 않네요.  제 블로그 follow 하시는 분들에게만 제목이 보여서 클릭하셨는지 한국에서만 그런건지 궁금합니다.

"You know that the rulers of this world lord it over their people, and like to make their authority over others felt. But it shall not be so with you. Whoever wishes to be great among you will be a servant; and whoever wishes to be the first among you will be the servant of all. For the Son of Man did not come to be served but to serve, and to give his life freely as a ransom for many."
Mark 10:42-45

지난 봄에 블로그를 잠시 쉬기 전에는 보통 한달 평균 1000명 정도의 방문자들이 블로그에 들어와 주셨는데 다시 포스팅을 하기 시작한 후 방문자 수가 늘어 지난 달에는 2000명이 넘었고 이번 달에는 이미 이를 넘어섰다.  어디에다 블로그를 광고한 적도 없고 다른 블로그에 댓글을 다는 일도 거의 없어 블로그 개설 이후 한동안 방문자 수가 200명 남짓이었다.  2010년 봄 이태석 신부님 사후에 신부님에 관한 간단한 포스팅을 했는데 미국의 경우 영어로 이태석 신부님을 구글에서 검색해서 여러분들이 들어와 주셨다. (이때는 신부님에 관한 영화가 개봉되기 전이어서 영어로 쓴 신부님에 관한 글이 전무해 신부님 이름을 구글에 치면 제 블로그가 1위로 뜨는 것을 보고 놀랬었다.)  여하튼 미국에서 들어와 주시는 고정 독자분들이 가장 오래되셨고 많아 감사한 마음이다.

블로그를 시작하게 된 계기는 쓰고 있는 책들의 draft의 일부를 지인들과 소통할 목적으로 올리고 필요한 자료를 모아놓을 생각으로 시작했는데 다른 분들에게도 도움이 될 듯해서 진행되고 있는 현안 이슈들도 많이 올리게 되었다.  저는 printed media를 support하는 사람이라서 책이 지닌 가치를 중요하게 생각하지만, 인터넷이 가진 장점을 잘 활용하면 유익한 내용을 서로 공유하고 배울 수 있지 않나 싶다.

이번 주에 특히 한국에서 많은 분들께서 블로그를 방문해 주셨다.  한국에서 들어오시는 유형은 세가지로 분류될 수 있는데 (작년 봄에 네이버에서 블로그가 검색되기 전에 한국에서 들어오는 트래픽은 아주 미미했었는데) 정기적으로 블로그 포스트들을 클릭해 주시는 고정독자분들 (클릭해 주시는 포스팅들로 짐작해 볼 때 현상황을 정확히 인식하고 계신것으로 추정), 영어로 키워드 검색을 통해 들어와 주시는 분들, 그리고 한국어로 키워드 검색해서 들어오시는 분들이다.  이번 주에 삼성 베트남 공장에 관한 포스트를 검색엔진을 통해 들어와 많이 클릭해 주셨다. 이밖에 기술전략, S곡선, 혁신패턴, 제품혁신, 신제품 개발, 시장조사, 마케팅전략 등등의 키워드 검색을 통해 많은 분들이 방문해 주시고 있다. 이 포스트들은 발간한 내 책들에서 기술혁신경영과 마케팅과 관련한 아주 기본적인 개념을 올린 것인데 검색어를 치면 네이버에서 상위에 랭크되어 있으니 들어오시는 것 같다.  그런데 이렇게 들어오시는 분들께 당부의 말씀을 드리고 싶다. 

아마도 이분들의 상당수가 학생들이 아닌가 싶은데 여기에 한국말로 올린 포스팅들은 너무 간략하고 맛보기 개념이 크기 때문에 주제에 대해 심도있는 공부를 하시려면 관련 책들을 읽어보시기를 권해 드린다.  이 블로그에 영어로 올리고 있는 다른 유익한 내용들이 많으니 읽어보시면서 공부해 가시기를 또한 권해 드린다. 왜냐하면 여러 사안을 통합해 볼 수 있는 perspective를 기르면서 필요한 내용을 찾아서 읽는 것은 통찰력과 직관을 배양하는데 중요하기 때문이다.

영어로 쓰고 있는 이유는 더 많은 독자에게 도달하기 위해서인데 (다행히 우리와 비슷한 경로를 밟고 있는 중국을 비롯한 아시아 후발국가에서도 꾸준히 방문해 주고 계시다) 이 블로그에 올리고 있는 포스트들과 링크들은 중요한 여러 주제들을 다루고 있다.  예를 들어 급속한 경제성장이 가져온 득과 실, 수출 위주 경제개발 정책의 문제점, 재벌위주 산업정책의 장기적 손실, IMF 위기 이후의 잘못된 정책들, 제조와 혁신을 바탕으로 한 생산적 역량이 한국경제 발전의 원동력이었는데 이것이 무엇으로 대체되고 있는가, 한국기업들이 하이테크 경쟁력을 어떻게 축적했으며 어떤 도전을 맞고 있는가, 왜 한국의 기술집약적 중소기업들이 어려움을 겪어왔는가, 생산적 역량이 국가 경제의 기반일진대 이를 어떻게 키울 것인가, 왜 아시아 국가들이 미국과의 특이한 관계를 통해서 급성장을 할 수 있었는가, 일본은 한국과 중국의 경제모델이 되었는데 왜 쇠퇴하게 되었는가, 미국경제가 어떻게 해서 오늘날의 난관에 봉착했는가, 중국이 어떤 발전 경로를 거치고 있으며 어디로 가고 있는가 등을 다루고 있다.  또한 왜 Keynesian 정책들이 working out하고 있지 않은지, 왜 많은 국가들이 coordinated된 fashion으로 정책을 펴고 있는지 (예를 들어 liquidity injection), 왜 현재 실행되고 있는 can-kicking interventions이 실패로 끝날 가능성이 큰지, 미국 Fed가 어떤 역할을 수행해 왔는지, 왜 central planning이 득보다 실이 많은지, 왜 젊은이들을 위한 양질의 일자리가 사라지고 있는지, 왜 물가가 계속 오르는지, 어떻게 사회문화와 중산층, 생활수준이 변해가고 있는지, 이러한 변화에 정치권과 관료, 재벌, 매스미디어는 어떤 역할을 하고 있는지 등도 다루고 있다.

언제까지 포스팅을 할 수 있을지 모르겠으나 이렇게 포스팅 할 수 있게 허락하고 인도해 주시는 분에게 감사하고 기도하는 마음으로 매번 포스팅하고 있다. (만약 계속 포스팅을 못하게 되더라도 블로그는 열어두려고 한다)

이 블로그에 올린 글들이 디딤돌이 되어 다루어진 주제에 대해 더욱 훌륭한 글을 쓰는 후배들이 많이 나오기를, 사회적으로 의미있는 일들을 하고 싶은 분들에게 좋은 정보와 의사결정에 필요한 생각할 거리를 제공해 주기를 소망하고 있다.

블로그에 올리고 있는 글들과 현안 이슈들은 집필하고 있는 몇 권의 책들과 관련된 내용들인데 그 중 한 권의 framework에 대한 간단한 설명은 다음과 같다. (예전에 올린 적이 있고 많은 분들이 클릭해 주셨다)

In order to understand how innovation/productive capacity has built, yet why it is dwindling and what purpose it has served and how innovation apparatus is coupled with the health of the economy and social well-being, one needs a holistic perspective that places the functions of innovation/productive capacity at the global, national and individual levels in the context of the external and internal forces and the dynamics of various actors.