Asia's Export Face-Off: "환율전쟁에 한·일 수출 맞대결 주목"

From the WSJ:

Japan and South Korea compete head to head in export markets, and recent currency moves are transforming the battlefield—a shift that has investors weighing how corporate profits, and stock prices, might be affected.

The currencies of the two Asian countries, both major producers of goods ranging from televisions to cars to cellphones, have moved in dramatically different directions since the start of last year. The won has risen 26.6% against the yen since the beginning of 2012, a move that accelerated in November as the yen weakened in response to expectations for further Japanese monetary easing.

The recent currency movement "is in a very simple way, a transfer of wealth from Korean auto makers to the Japanese auto makers," said Angelo Corbetta, head of Asian equities at Pioneer Investments in London, which had $197.9 billion of assets under management at the end of October.

Mr. Corbetta said that he had in recent months reduced his exposure to the South Korean car industry and bought Japanese auto makers.

South Korean officials are trying to shield exporters from the stronger won. On Tuesday, the government announced measures that include offering state funds and lower interest rates on loans targeted at smaller companies. In Japan, though, the central bank further loosened monetary policy to kick-start the economy, a move likely to keep the yen weak.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average is 3% higher so far this year, while Korea's Kospi is flat. In Asia, only the Malaysian market, with a 3.6% decline, has performed worse.

Credit Suisse says growth in Korean exports will fall short of Japan's by 1.1 percentage points for every 1% decline in the yen against the won, with a lag of about six months, all other factors being equal.

While the yen's plummet should be good news for Japan's exporters, some say it may be too soon for the results to show up in corporate earnings. Japan's big companies will report their earnings later than their Korean counterparts.

"It is still early days," said Nader Naeimi, senior investment strategist and portfolio manager at AMP Capital in Sydney. Mr. Naeimi manages the firm's $100 million multiasset Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund and is currently overweight Japan.

The weaker yen, said Mr. Naeimi, "should have a positive impact on some companies, especially the auto makers, which are sensitive to moves in the exchange rate. But when it comes to areas like steel and petrochemicals, I think we need to see more sustained weakness in the yen before we can see a decisive improvement in earnings."

Analyst expectations for better Japanese earnings appear to be mounting, a significant change given that the strong yen has plagued Japanese companies for years. The one-month earnings revision ratio for the MSCI Japan index, which compares increases to consensus earnings forecasts against reductions, was most recently recording more than two upgrades for every downgrade.

A firmer domestic currency makes an exporter's products more expensive for overseas buyers, and it can eat into the profits when a company with multinational operations repatriates funds from abroad.

In the first quarter of 2013, the effect of the "drastic yen depreciation will be limited on the Japanese corporate earnings since most of the firms have hedged their FX exposure to some extent," said Kuninobu Takeuchi, executive portfolio manager of the Japan Equity Investment Strategies Unit and the Global Quantitative Investment Strategies Unit at DIAM Co. in Tokyo, which had $127 billion under management at the end of September.

After April, Mr. Takeuchi says the impact of a weaker currency will start to be felt, boosting Japanese earnings by around 15% based on the yen's current exchange rate against the dollar and the euro.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323301104578257284162345360.html

연합뉴스로부터:

세계 투자자들이 최근의 환율 전쟁에 따른 엔화 약세, 원화 강세로 경쟁이 치열해진 한국과 일본의 수출 맞대결에 주목하고 있다고 월스트리트저널(WSJ)이 23일(현지시간) 전했다.

   TV, 자동차, 휴대전화 등의 시장에서 경쟁 상대인 한국과 일본의 환율은 지난해 이후 극명하게 반대 방향으로 움직이고 있다.

   엔화 대비 원화의 가치는 지난해 이후 26.6% 올라갔다. 원화 가치 상승세는 일본의 추가 양적완화 예상으로 엔화가 약세를 보인 지난해 11월 가속됐다.

   엔화 가치가 하락하면 일본 제품의 가격 경쟁력이 상승, 같은 품목을 수출하는 한국 업체는 타격을 받는다.

   한국 정부는 원화 강세에 따른 수출 중소기업의 피해를 막으려고 지난 22일 낮은 이자의 자금을 대출해주는 등의 대책을 발표하는 등 원화 강세 대비에 분주하다.

   원화 강세와 엔화 약세는 수출 시장 뿐만 아니라 투자 시장에도 영향을 미치고 있다. 한국 수출 업체에 투자됐던 자금이 일본 수출 업체로 옮겨가는 자산 이동이 이뤄지고 있다.

   원화 강세와 엔화 약세가 양국 기업의 실적에도 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 WSJ는 전망했다.

   투자자들은 이런 의문의 해답을 찾으려고 조만간 있을 한국과 일본 주요 기업의 지난해 4분기 실적 발표를 기다리고 있다.

  일본의 연금 운용사인 다이암(DIAM)의 다케우치 구니노부 포트폴리오 매니저는 "대부분 기업이 환 헤지를 했기 때문에 엔저가 올해 1분기에 일본 기업의 실적에 미칠 영향은 제한적이지만 오는 4월부터 엔화 약세 효과가 본격적으로 나타나 일본 기업의 순익이 15% 정도 늘어날 것"이라고 예상했다.

http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/international/2013/01/24/0601090100AKR20130124002500072.HTML