"You were once darkness, but now you are in the light of the Lord. Live as
children of light, for light produces every kind of goodness and righteousness
and truth. Try to learn what is pleasing to the Lord. Take no part in the
fruitless works of darkness; rather expose them, for it is shameful even to
mention the things done by them in secret; but everything exposed by the light
becomes visible, for everything that becomes visible is light."
Ephesians 5:8-12
I got sick this week (high fever, vomiting, body aching, etc.) and looked horrible. I'm slowly getting my strength back. Please remember me in your prayers. Here comes April. April last year was a difficult time in my life.
China seems to emulate Korea's fast follower strategy beautifully.
From ChosunBiz:
"앞으로도 국제 IT·가전 전시회에 최신·최첨단 제품을 갖고 나가야 할지 고민입니다."
국내 한 전자업체 최고경영자가 털어놓은
고민이었다. 미국 라스베이거스에서 열리는 CES나 독일 베를린의 IFA와 같은 세계적인 IT·가전 전시회에서 삼성전자와 LG전자는 단연
스타급 기업이다. 전시회마다 '세계 최초' '세계 최대' 타이틀의 첨단 제품들을 계속 선보여왔다. 두 회사는 지난해 CES에서 곡면
OLED(유기발광다이오드) TV를, 올해 CES에선 플렉서블(구부렸다 펼 수 있는) TV를 세계 최초로 공개했다. 올해
CES에서 두 회사가 공개한 105인치 곡면 UHD(초고화질) TV는 세계 최대 크기다. 하지만 첨단 기술이 응축된 최신 제품을 전시회에 내놓으면 6개월~1년 뒤쯤 중국 기업이 그대로 모방한 제품을 내놓는 행태가 반복되고 있다. 첨단
제품들이 전시회의 하이라이트 역할을 하지만, 결과적으로는 중국에 추격의 실마리를 주는 꼴이다. 한 전자업체 CEO는 "서로 기술적인 우위를 과시하기 위해 당장 출시하지도 않을 첨단 제품을 전시회에 내놓는 경우가 많다"며 "지금 같은
방식으로 전시회에 최첨단 제품을 내놓아 중국이 모방·추격하는 빌미를 계속 줘야 할지 한 번 돌아볼 때가 됐다"고 했다.
중국
기업들이 한국 기업 제품 베끼기에 적극적이지만 아직 핵심 기술을 따라잡지는 못하고 있다. 예를 들어 올해 CES에서 중국 업체들이
UHD(초고화질) TV를 대거 전시했지만, 화질은 아직 한국 제품에 미치지 못한다는 것이 전자업계의 평가다.
하지만 중국은 점점 더
빨리 추격해오고 있다. 한국산업기술평가관리원(KEIT)은 기술 분야별로 1위 국가를 100점으로 봤을 때 각국 기술 수준을 점수로 환산해
발표한다. 격년으로 집계하는 이 조사를 보면 한·중 간 기술 격차가 좁아지는 추세가 나타난다. 디스플레이 분야에서 한·중의 점수 차이는
2011년 26.9점에서 지난해 19.3점으로 좁아졌다. 홈네트워크·정보가전 분야에서도 점수 차이가 19.3점에서 16.8점으로
줄었다.
전자업계 일각에서는 전시회 참가의 효용성에 의문을 제기하는 목소리도 나오지만, 마케팅 효과를 생각하면 당장 참가를 그만둘
수도 없는 노릇이다. 국제 IT·가전 전시회만큼 많은 거래처와 취재진, 소비자가 한자리에 모이는 기회가 드물기 때문이다.
Regina Herzlinger is a bit of a superstar. She was the first woman to be a tenured professor at Harvard Business School, and is now leading its march into Moocs – massive open online courses – which promise to revolutionise the world of higher education.
Professor Herzlinger, whose 11-week course on Innovating in Healthcare will start this month, is an advocate of this model of free online education. “I believe Moocs can democratise education,” she says. “It’s fantastic to reach so many people.”
Harvard, MIT Sloan, the University of Virginia’s Darden school and several other big-brand US business schools are experimenting with Moocs. The Wharton school at the University of Pennsylvania has gone so far as to put 10 per cent of its MBA core courses online for free access. Like Prof Herzlinger, Wharton’s vice-dean of innovation Karl Ulrich believes the social impact of these programmes is a central reason for promoting Moocs. He cites the example of one Wharton Mooc that enrolled more than 130,000 students. “There’s just a huge, huge take-up.”
In Europe, business schools such as IE in Spain and Warwick in the UK have taught online MBA programmes alongside their highly ranked full-time programmes.
Now, top schools in the US, such as Kenan-Flagler at the University of North Carolina with its MBA@UNC, are validating the online mode of delivery.
Prof Anandalingam, formerly dean at the Smith school at the University of Maryland, says the technology is “state of the art compared with anything I have seen in the US. Students get a rich learning environment”. ww.ft.com/cms/s/2/88757cba-9979-11e3-b3a2-00144feab7de.html#axzz2wGziQ7CQ
Regina Herzlinger is a bit of a superstar. She was the first
woman to be a tenured professor at Harvard Business School, and is now leading
its march into Moocs – massive open online courses – which promise to
revolutionise the world of higher education.
Professor Herzlinger, whose
11-week course on Innovating in Healthcare will start this month, is an advocate
of this model of free online education. “I believe Moocs can democratise
education,” she says. “It’s fantastic to reach so many people.”
Harvard,
MIT Sloan, the University of Virginia’s Darden school and several other
big-brand US business schools are experimenting with Moocs. The Wharton school
at the University of Pennsylvania has gone so far as to put 10 per cent of its
MBA core courses online for free access. Like Prof Herzlinger, Wharton’s
vice-dean of innovation Karl Ulrich believes the social impact of these
programmes is a central reason for promoting Moocs. He cites the example of one
Wharton Mooc that enrolled more than 130,000 students. “There’s just a huge,
huge take-up.”
In Europe, business schools such as IE in Spain and
Warwick in the UK have taught online MBA programmes alongside their highly
ranked full-time programmes.
Now, top schools in the US, such as
Kenan-Flagler at the University of North Carolina with its MBA@UNC, are
validating the online mode of delivery.
Prof Anandalingam, formerly dean
at the Smith school at the University of Maryland, says the technology is “state
of the art compared with anything I have seen in the US. Students get a rich
learning environment”.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#EfkdTcucUMZsLsYq.99
Regina Herzlinger is a bit of a superstar. She was the first
woman to be a tenured professor at Harvard Business School, and is now leading
its march into Moocs – massive open online courses – which promise to
revolutionise the world of higher education.
Professor Herzlinger, whose
11-week course on Innovating in Healthcare will start this month, is an advocate
of this model of free online education. “I believe Moocs can democratise
education,” she says. “It’s fantastic to reach so many people.”
Harvard,
MIT Sloan, the University of Virginia’s Darden school and several other
big-brand US business schools are experimenting with Moocs. The Wharton school
at the University of Pennsylvania has gone so far as to put 10 per cent of its
MBA core courses online for free access. Like Prof Herzlinger, Wharton’s
vice-dean of innovation Karl Ulrich believes the social impact of these
programmes is a central reason for promoting Moocs. He cites the example of one
Wharton Mooc that enrolled more than 130,000 students. “There’s just a huge,
huge take-up.”
In Europe, business schools such as IE in Spain and
Warwick in the UK have taught online MBA programmes alongside their highly
ranked full-time programmes.
Now, top schools in the US, such as
Kenan-Flagler at the University of North Carolina with its MBA@UNC, are
validating the online mode of delivery.
Prof Anandalingam, formerly dean
at the Smith school at the University of Maryland, says the technology is “state
of the art compared with anything I have seen in the US. Students get a rich
learning environment”.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/#EfkdTcucUMZsLsYq.99
Sunday, March 23, 2014
"Share your bread with the hungry, shelter the oppressed and the homeless;
clothe the naked when you see them, and do not turn your back on your own. Then
your light shall break forth like the dawn, and your wounds shall quickly be
healed; your vindication shall go before you, and the glory of the LORD shall be
yours. Then you shall call, and the LORD will answer, you shall cry for help,
and he will say: Here I am."
Isaiah 58:7-9
There are many ways to use technological advancement and collaboration for the good of the people.
From Kickstarter:
OpenBCI is a low-cost, programmable, open-source EEG platform that gives anybody with a computer access to their brainwaves. Our vision is to realize the potential of the open-source movement to accelerate innovation in brain science through collaborative hardware and software development. Behind the many lines of code and circuit diagrams, OpenBCI has a growing community of scientists, engineers, designers, makers, and a whole bunch of other people who are interested in furthering our understanding of the brain. We feel that the biggest challenges in understanding what makes us who we are cannot be solved by a company, an institution, or even an entire field of science. Rather, we believe these discoveries will be made through an open forum of shared knowledge and concerted effort by people from many different disciplines. The community that has begun to develop around OpenBCI is one of the main
driving forces for us taking the project further. We were very excited by the
amazing feedback and support we received at the NYC Maker Faire and it made us
realize the importance of getting more people involved.
Bjorn
showing his brainwaves to his daughter at Maker Faire NYC back in
September
Korea was modeled after Japan. It has pursued mercantilism as well. So has China. I have touched upon mercantilist policy many times.
From Zero Hedge:
In the 16 months since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched his
bold plan to reflate Japan’s shrinking economy the yen has depreciated
by 22% against the dollar, 28% against the euro and 24% against the renminbi.
The hope was to stimulate trade and push the current account decisively into the
black. Yet the reverse has occurred. Japan’s external position has worsened due
to anemic export growth and a spiraling energy import bill: in January it
recorded a record monthly trade deficit of ¥2.8trn ($27.4bn). Having eked out a
0.7% current account surplus in 2013, Japan may this year swing into deficit for
the first time since 1980. So why is the medicine not
working?
The end result of all this is that the government bears none of the burden of
the adjustment and the household sector bears all of it, through higher import
costs and lower financial income. With the household sector’s spending power
thus crimped, companies have no incentive to invest in domestically-focused
production. Instead, all their investment will be geared toward
exports—mercantilism on steroids.
A mercantilist policy can feel like it is working during periods when strong
global growth allows excess exports to be absorbed without ruinous price falls.
Between 2001 and 2006 the yen devalued by almost 40% on a real effective
exchange rate basis and Japan’s current account improved sharply. Japan may not
have won back its global competitiveness (its share of the global export pie
fell by 1.5 percentage points in the period), but strong external conditions did
allow exports to grow 9% a year in dollar terms. Today, Japanese exporters do not face such benign conditions and any
successful mercantilist boost can only come from eating the lunch of rivals.
Snowden talks about the role of the Internet in our lives. Whether you agree with his claim or not, it would be necessary to see through the social implications of the Internet in a broad sense.
From Mish's blog:
Partial Transcript
TED: It's alleged that you have stolen 1.7 million documents.
It seems only a few hundred of them have been shared with journalists so far.
Are there more revelation to come? Snowden: There are absolutely more
revelations to come. Some of the most reporting to be done is yet to
come. TED: This is a story that for a lot of techies is the single most
shocking thing that they have heard in the last few months. It's about a program
called Bull Run. Could you explain what that is? Snowden: Bull Run is,
and we have to thank the NSA for their candor. This is a program named after a
civil war battle. They reason I believe it is named that way is they target our
own infrastructure. Their programs intentionally mislead corporate partners.
They tell corporate partners these are safe standards. Hey, we need to work with
you to secure the system. But in reality their giving bad advice to these
companies that makes them degrade the security of their services. They are
building in back doors, that not only the NSA can exploit, but anyone else who
has time and money to research and find, to let themselves in to the world's
communications. This is really dangerous because if we lose a single standard,
if we lose the trust of something like SSL, which was specifically targeted by
Bull Run, we will live in a less safe world overall. We won't be able to access
our banks, and we will not be able to access commerce without worrying about
people monitoring those communications and subverting them for their own
use. TED: Do those same decisions also potentially open America up to
cyber attacks from other sources? Snowden: Absolutely. If we hack a
Chinese business and steal their secrets, if we hack a government office in
Berlin and steal their secrets, that has less value to the American people than
making sure that the Chinese cannot get access to our secrets. By reducing the
security of our communications, they are not only putting the world at risk,
they are putting America at risk in a fundamental way. Intellectual property is
the foundation of our economy. If we put that at risk with weak security, we are
going to be paying for it for years. TED: They have made a calculation it
is worth doing this as part of America's defense against
terrorism. Snowden: When you look at the results of these programs to
stop terrorism, you will see that is unfounded. You don't have to take my word
for it. The first court that has reviewed this outside the secrecy arrangement,
called these program Orwellian and likely unconstitutional. Two independent
White House panels that reviewed all of the classified evidence said these
programs have never stopped a single terrorist attack in the United States. So
is it really terrorism that we are stopping? Do these programs have any value at
all? TED: [pointing to a newspaper clip that reads "I would love to put
a bullet in his head one Pentagon official told BuzzFeed"] How are you coping
with this? Snowden: I've made clear, again and again and again that I go
to sleep every morning thinking about what I can do for the American people. I
don't want to harm my government. I want to help my government. But the fact
they are completely willing to ignore due process, they are willing to declare
guilt without ever seeing a trial, these are things we need to work against. We
shouldn't be threatening citizens. We shouldn't be criminalizing journalists.
And whatever part I can do to see that end, I am happy to do that. .....
[Regarding optimism] Snowden: I am living proof that an individual can
go head to head against the most powerful adversaries and the most powerful
intelligence agencies around the world, and win. That is something we need to
take hope from. Journalism is not a crime, communication is not a crime and we
should not be monitored on our everyday activities. TED: The New York
Times called for amnesty. Would you welcome the chance to come back to America?
Snowden: Absolutely. The principles that have been the foundation of
this project have been the public interest. ... The government has hinted they
want some kind of deal. That they want me to compromise the journalists with
which I have been working, to come back. And i want to make it very clear, that
I did not do this to be safe. I did this to do what was right. And I am not
going to stop my work in the public's interest, just to benefit myself.
[applause] ... We don't have to give up our privacy to have good government. We
don't have to give up our liberty to have security. And I think by working
together, we can have both open government and private lives. And I look forward
to working with everyone around the world to see that happen. Thank you very
much.
TED: It's alleged that you have stolen 1.7 million documents. It seems only a few hundred of them have been shared with journalists so far. Are there more revelation to come? Snowden: There are absolutely more revelations to come. Some of the most reporting to be done is yet to come. TED: This is a story that for a lot of techies is the single most shocking thing that they have heard in the last few months. It's about a program called Bull Run. Could you explain what that is? Snowden: Bull Run is, and we have to thank the NSA for their candor. This is a program named after a civil war battle. They reason I believe it is named that way is they target our own infrastructure. Their programs intentionally mislead corporate partners. They tell corporate partners these are safe standards. Hey, we need to work with you to secure the system. But in reality their giving bad advice to these companies that makes them degrade the security of their services. They are building in back doors, that not only the NSA can exploit, but anyone else who has time and money to research and find, to let themselves in to the world's communications. This is really dangerous because if we lose a single standard, if we lose the trust of something like SSL, which was specifically targeted by Bull Run, we will live in a less safe world overall. We won't be able to access our banks, and we will not be able to access commerce without worrying about people monitoring those communications and subverting them for their own use. TED: Do those same decisions also potentially open America up to cyber attacks from other sources? Snowden: Absolutely. If we hack a Chinese business and steal their secrets, if we hack a government office in Berlin and steal their secrets, that has less value to the American people than making sure that the Chinese cannot get access to our secrets. By reducing the security of our communications, they are not only putting the world at risk, they are putting America at risk in a fundamental way. Intellectual property is the foundation of our economy. If we put that at risk with weak security, we are going to be paying for it for years. TED: They have made a calculation it is worth doing this as part of America's defense against terrorism. Snowden: When you look at the results of these programs to stop terrorism, you will see that is unfounded. You don't have to take my word for it. The first court that has reviewed this outside the secrecy arrangement, called these program Orwellian and likely unconstitutional. Two independent White House panels that reviewed all of the classified evidence said these programs have never stopped a single terrorist attack in the United States. So is it really terrorism that we are stopping? Do these programs have any value at all? TED: [pointing to a newspaper clip that reads "I would love to put a bullet in his head one Pentagon official told BuzzFeed"] How are you coping with this? Snowden: I've made clear, again and again and again that I go to sleep every morning thinking about what I can do for the American people. I don't want to harm my government. I want to help my government. But the fact they are completely willing to ignore due process, they are willing to declare guilt without ever seeing a trial, these are things we need to work against. We shouldn't be threatening citizens. We shouldn't be criminalizing journalists. And whatever part I can do to see that end, I am happy to do that. ..... [Regarding optimism] Snowden: I am living proof that an individual can go head to head against the most powerful adversaries and the most powerful intelligence agencies around the world, and win. That is something we need to take hope from. Journalism is not a crime, communication is not a crime and we should not be monitored on our everyday activities. TED: The New York Times called for amnesty. Would you welcome the chance to come back to America? Snowden: Absolutely. The principles that have been the foundation of this project have been the public interest. ... The government has hinted they want some kind of deal. That they want me to compromise the journalists with which I have been working, to come back. And i want to make it very clear, that I did not do this to be safe. I did this to do what was right. And I am not going to stop my work in the public's interest, just to benefit myself. [applause] ... We don't have to give up our privacy to have good government. We don't have to give up our liberty to have security. And I think by working together, we can have both open government and private lives. And I look forward to working with everyone around the world to see that happen. Thank you very much. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVwAodrjZMY http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.kr/2014/03/edward-snowden-on-ted-more-revelations.html
Samsung Electronics Co.'s newest smartphone Galaxy S5 will not be categorized as
a healthcare instrument despite having a heart rate sensor, the medical ministry
said Monday, freeing it from regulations that could have complicated its sales
launch. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety said it plans to revise the current law
to distinguish heart rate sensors used for leisure purposes from those serving
medical purposes. "Although the Galaxy S5 is technically a medical device under the current
law, it will be excluded from the category after the revision," an official from
the ministry said. "It will take about 25 days for the amendment."
The
ministry added major countries such as the United States, Japan and Britain
already follow similar categorization. Samsung's Galaxy S5 smartphone is the first in the industry to come with a
built-in heart rate sensor, which can also be connected to smartwatches to
monitor one's heart rate such as during exercise.
The feature had sparked concerns over the release schedule of the Galaxy S5,
as local law stipulates that medical devices, defined as equipment used to
diagnose, treat or prevent diseases, must be approved by the ministry before
being sold in the market.
When you
pray, do not be like the hypocrites, who love to stand and pray loudly in the
Churches and at special venues so that others may see them. Amen, I say to you,
they have already received their reward. But when you pray, go to your own
room, close the door, and pray to your Father in secret. And your Father who
sees all, even in secret, will hear you."
P&G is known to be a solid marketing firm as well as technological prowess. It is interesting to see how this p lays out.
From the Wall Street Journal:
The giant Procter & Gamble Co. PG
in Your ValueYour ChangeShort positionlast week
demonstrated what it calls the "World's First Available Interactive Electric
Toothbrush." It links with a smartphone and records brushing habits, while an
app gives mouth-care tips alongside news headlines.
"There are people who are very passionately waiting
for it," says Michael Cohen-Dumani, associate marketing director for P&G's
Oral-B electric toothbrush business.
"I truly believe that 10 years from now," he says,
"it's going to be hard to think you didn't have something like it."
Not everyone is champing at the bit. "It's one of
those things you think are great at first but never actually buy," says Karina
Clarke, a 34-year-old Paris real-estate agent. The idea, she says, seems like "a
microwave you put in your mouth."
This race to wire the world's jaws is playing out in one of
tech's buzziest arenas: the so-called Internet of things. Giants like Google Inc., GOOG
in Your ValueYour ChangeShort positionwhich recently
bought a networked-thermostat maker called Nest, are investing, as are smaller
startups. New products include smart socks (to measure running form) and
connected water bottles (to gather water-consumption data.)
"We're just at the beginning of seeing a bunch of
really ridiculous products that tie pretty much anything to a smartphone," says
Stacey Higginbotham, who writes about the Internet of things for tech website
Gigaom.
Kolibree is betting on sensors and analytics to
improve the daily oral-hygiene ritual. Its sonic toothbrush, called the
Kolibree, includes nine motion sensors and an algorithm designed by five
mathematicians to identify which quadrant of the mouth a user is brushing, Mr.
Serval says.
Kolibree is designing its brush so anyone, from
dentists to game developers, can build applications that tap into its data. "We
are kind of geeks going into the dental industry," Mr. Serval says. "We want to
use data to reinvent the way people brush their teeth."
P&G is leaning on its history. The company's
Oral-B brand offered its first electric toothbrush in 1963. The mobile app with
P&G's toothbrush—it will be part of the Oral-B SmartSeries line—tells avid
users how long to spend on each corner of the mouth.
P&G says its will be the first connected electric
brush available to consumers. "Our competitors have some prototypes," says Mr.
Cohen-Dumani, "and we are excited to see how they come along."
Competition among Web-enabled toothbrushes is set to
continue.
Is IoT (Internet of
Things) going to be another fad? Or just
another business model by savvy entrepreneurs to generate profits? One may want to think over what Smartphones
have done to human wellbeing. There is a
concern that creativity and independence have been hampered by those kinds of
technological solutions. We hope that
technological advancements will do good to the general public in a genuine
sense. People have to be wise enough to
use this sort of technology to their benefits.
Fro;m Business Insider:
The
age of Internet ubiquity has arrived.
The world is moving beyond standalone devices into a new era where everything is connected. We've created a slideshow highlighting the key trends and forecasts for the
entire Internet-connected ecosystem, including connected TVs, connected cars,
wearable computing devices, and all of the consumer and business tools that will
soon be connected to the "Internet Of Things."
China is the largest trading partner of Korea. There are plenty of signs that the Chinese economy is crashing as predicted.
From Zero Hedge:
Plenty of excuses out there for this evening's collosal miss in Chinese
exports (-18.1% YoY vs an expectation of a 7.5% rise) mainly based on
timing issues over the Lunar New Year (but didn't the 45 economists who forecast
this data know the dates before they forecast?) This is a 6-sigma
miss and plunges China's trade balance to its biggest miss on record
and 2nd largest deficit on record. Combining Jan and Feb data (i.e. smoothing
over the holiday), exports are still down 1.6% YoY - not good for the
much-heralded global recovery. Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all
down over 20% but no there is no contagion from an emerging market
crisis.
It continues to amaze us how people are completely ignoring what appears to be
an incredible amount of shadiness inherent in Facebook’s business
model. Whether or not this is intentional click fraud, it is clear that
advertisers are not getting what they think they are getting. They won’t be
fooled forever, and once they wake up to the money being wasted on fake “likes”
and “clicks,” We're curious to see what happens to their revenue... This
will all be exposed by the market sooner or later. I’m just shocked it is taking
so long for people to put two and two together.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/mans-600000-facebook-disaster-warning-all-small-businesses
It’s not size that matters — at least when it comes to job creation. The age of the company is a bigger factor. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Jason Faberman on Monday became the latest in a long line of economists to unpack the misconception – promoted frequently by elected officials — that small businesses are the key to creating new jobs in the U.S. It’s a subset of small firms—young, innovative companies—that lead in job creation. “It’s the new guys, not necessarily the small guys, that generate growth,” he said at the National Association for Business Economics policy conference in Arlington, Va. “The focus for policymakers shouldn’t be on small business job growth, but on new business formation.” Nearly 90% of U.S. firms employ 19 or fewer workers. Those smaller firms create jobs at nearly twice the rate of larger companies. Controlling for the age of the firm, Mr. Faberman found the strongest job growth came from firms that were less than four years old. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/02/24/say-it-together-young-businesses-not-small-ones-drive-job-growth/?mod=WSJBlog
Korea's deindustrialization process seems to continue. The current administration has to take a holistic approach to stop Korea's productive capacity from declining.
국민일보로부터:
박근혜정부 1년은 기업들에 살얼음판이었다. 초기에는 경제민주화 기치를 앞세워
기업을 전방위로 압박했다. 일부 그룹 총수는 구속과 재판 속에 시간을 보내야 했고 상당수 기업이 세무조사
등으로 사정당국 눈치를 봤다.
특히 경기침체가 길어지면서 기업 실적은 곤두박질쳤다. 국내 기업은 이미 저성장 늪에 빠져
있다. 여기에다 경제민주화에서 경기활성화로 극단을 오가는 정부 정책에 대한 불신은 뿌리 깊다. 그나마 형편이 나은 주요 대기업조차 지갑을 굳게 닫는 이유다.
24일 전국경제인연합회에
따르면 매출액 기준 600대 기업을 대상으로 조사한 기업경기실사지수(BSI)는 새 정부 출범 당시인 지난해 3월 104.4를 기록했다. 전월
대비로 17.7포인트나 올랐었다. BSI가 기준치(100)를 넘어선 것은 2012년
5월 이후 10개월 만이었다.
하지만 새 정부에 대한 기대감은 거센 경제민주화 바람에 날아갔다. 지난해 5월 BSI는 기준선 밑으로 떨어진 뒤 위로 올라오지 않았다. 이달 들어 BSI는 88.7로 4개월 연속 하락세를 보였다.
체감경기뿐만 아니다. 기업이 얼마나 미래를 대비하고 있는지, 현재 경기를 어떻게 느끼고 있는지를 보여주는 지표인 설비투자 증가율이 추락하고 있다. 지난해 국내 기업의 설비투자는 전년 대비 1.5% 감소했다. 2012년에 이어 2년 연속 감소세다. 기업들이 위기를 감지하고 돈을 풀지 않는 것이다.
올해도 상황은 나아질 기미를 보이지 않는다. 30대 그룹 가운데 올해 투자·신규 채용 규모를
지난해보다 확대하는 곳은 3∼4곳 수준에 그칠 전망이다. 대부분 규모를 줄이거나 아예 계획을 잡지 못하고 있다. 재벌 총수들은
앞다퉈 '위기 경영'을 외치고 있다.
이에 따라 재계는 정부가 정책 불확실성을 줄이는 한편 규제 완화에 적극적으로 나서야 한다고 지적한다.
최근 박 대통령과 정부에서 첫손에 꼽는 경기활성화는 '기업 투자 활성화'와 같은 말이기 때문이다. 기업이 돈을 풀면 일자리가 늘어나고 일자리가
생겨 소득이 늘면 내수가 활성화된다.
재계 관계자는 "통상임금, 근로시간
단축, 정년연장 등 노사관계 이슈와 각종 규제를 유연하게 대처하고 해결하면서 기업의 투자를 독려해야
한다"며 "중견·중소기업은 물론 대기업도
규제 대상이 아닌 경제성장의 파트너로 여기고 함께 가는 방안을 모색해야 한다"고 강조했다.
This is what makes the current administration disappointing. On the one hand, it is boosting the creation and performance of the Korean SMEs. On the other hand, it has employed measures to expand household debt with the real estate bubble. Without the median income increase and household debt decrease, the Korean economy is not coming back.
경향신문으로부터:
가계부채가 공식적으로 1000조원을 넘어섰다. 부채의 질이 개선될 기미가 보이지 않는 상태에서 빚의 증가 속도는 다시 빨라지고 있다. '빚 내서
집 사라'는 정부 부동산대책의 영향으로 보인다. 정부가 부동산 활성화 프레임에 갇혀있는 한 가계빚은 더 늘어날 수밖에 없을 것으로 전망된다. 한국은행이 25일 발표한 '2013년 4분기 중 가계신용(잠정)' 통계를 보면, 지난해 말 현재 가계신용은 1021조3000억원으로 1년 전보다
57조5000억원 늘었다. 가계신용이란 은행을 비롯한 저축은행·새마을금고·상호금융 등 예금취급기관과 보험·연기금·대부사업자 같은 모든 금융기관의
대출과 카드사 외상매출까지 포괄하는 가계빚 공식 통계다.
가계신용 증가 폭은 2011년 72조원대에서 2012년 47조원 수준으로
줄다가 지난해 다시 57조원을 훌쩍 넘었다.
박근혜 정부가 '4·1 부동산대책'을 시작으로 지난 1년간 4차례나 부동산대책을
내놓는 등 주택 구입을 유도하는 정책을 펼친 탓이다. 가계신용은 지난해 4분기(10~12월)에만 28조원 가까이 증가했다. 분기 기준으로 사상
최대 규모이다. 공유형 모기지, 취득세 인하 등 정부의 부동산 관련 대책 영향으로 주택 대출이 늘어난 것이다. 가계부채의 질도 악화하고 있다. 전체 가계대출에서 은행대출이 차지하는 비율은 지난해 49.9%였다. 가계빚의 절반 이상이 금리가 높은
제2금융권이나 대부업체에서 빌린 돈이란 의미다. 특히 대부사업자가 포함된 기타 금융중개회사의 가계대출 증가액은 2011년 5조6000억원에서
2012년 15조원, 지난해 16조7000억원으로 해마다 규모가 커지고 있다.
■ '집 사라'며 빚 권하는 정부
정부가
지난해 8월 내놓은 전·월세 안정 대책도 따지고 보면 연 1% 저금리로 돈을 빌려줄 테니 집을 사라는 주택매매 활성화 대책이나 마찬가지였다.
최근 국토교통부는 업무보고에서 생애 최초 주택구입자에 대한 저금리 대출을 5년 이상 무주택자까지 확대키로 한 것도 같은 맥락이다. 집을 사라는
정부의 대책이 계속되는 한 가계부채 증가는 불가피하다.
박근혜 대통령은 이날 "2017년까지 (가처분소득 대비) 가계부채 비율을
지금보다 5%포인트 낮춰 처음으로 가계부채의 실질적인 축소를 이루겠다"고 밝혔다. 가계부채 자체를 줄이겠다는 것보다는 가처분 소득을 늘려
가계부채 비율을 낮추겠다는 의미로 풀이된다. 가처분소득 대비 가계부채 비율은 2008년 149.7%에서 2012년 163.8%로 증가했다.
박 대통령은 그동안 가계대출 증가를 억제해온 주택담보인정비율(LTV) 및 총부채상환비율(DTI) 금융규제를 합리화할 것이라고도
했다. 완전 규제완화는 아니더라도 시장환경에 맞춰 미세 조정을 하겠다는 것이어서 가계빚 증가는 당분간 불가피할 것으로 보인다.
