From China International Business:
It seems that nobody wants to appreciate. Most major economies will do something to keep their currencies down. That is checkmate for the US. Without the devaluation benefit on rising exports, QE just leads to inflation, first through rising oil prices. The American people are suffering from declining housing prices and high unemployment. If the gasoline price doubles, the country may not be stable. How would the elite react? Probably more of the same.
The world is heading towards high inflation and political instability. It's only a matter of time before there is another global crisis. The first sign would be a collapsing treasury market. The Fed is controlling the yield curve through its QE program. But, it is irrational for other investors to play this game. The only reason to stay in is that the Fed won't let the market fall. But, the underlying value is evaporating with rising money supply and the inflationary consequences. When all the investors realize this, they will run for the exits and the Fed won't be able to stop the stampede. If it prints enough money to take over the whole market, the people with freshly minted dollars would surely want to convert their money into other assets. The dollar would collapse too.
The world seems on course for another crisis in 2012. The same people who caused the last crisis are still in charge. They'll get us into another. Iceland is sending its former prime minister to court for causing the banking crisis. A worse fate awaits the people who are causing the next crisis.
http://www.cibmagazine.com.cn/Columnists/Andy_Xie.asp?id=1442&to_hell_through_qe.html
Monday, November 8, 2010
Sunday, November 7, 2010
The G20 Seoul Summit Showdown with China; German Finance Minister Calls the U.S. QE Clueless
From the FT:
China has curtly dismissed a US proposal to address global economic imbalances, setting the stage for a potential showdown at next week’s G20 meeting in Seoul.
Cui Tiankai, a deputy foreign minister and one of China’s lead negotiators at the G20, said on Friday that the US plan for limiting current account surpluses and deficits to 4 per cent of gross domestic product harked back “to the days of planned economies”.
“We believe a discussion about a current account target misses the whole point,” he added, in the first official comment by a senior Chinese official on the subject. “If you look at the global economy, there are many issues that merit more attention – for example, the question of quantitative easing.”
China’s opposition to the proposal, which had made some progress at a G20 finance ministers’ meeting last month, came amid a continuing rumble of protest from around the world at the US Federal Reserve’s plan to pump an extra $600bn into financial markets.
Officials from China, Germany and South Africa on Friday added their voices to a chorus of complaint that the Fed’s return to so-called quantitative easing would create instability and worsen imbalances by triggering surges of capital into other currencies.
Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, has proposed using what the US refers to as current account “guidelines” to accelerate global rebalancing, partly as a way of changing the debate away from simply pressing China to allow faster appreciation in the renminbi.
But on Thursday and Friday, governments focused instead on the global impact of the Fed’s action. “With all due respect, US policy is clueless,” Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, told reporters. “It’s not that the Americans haven’t pumped enough liquidity into the market,” he said. “Now to say let’s pump more into the market is not going to solve their problems.”
Pravin Gordhan, finance minister of South Africa, a key member of the emerging market bloc, said the decision “undermines the spirit of multilateral co-operation that G20 leaders have fought so hard to maintain during the current crisis”, and ran counter to the pledge made by G20 finance ministers to refrain from uncoordinated responses.
Experts say the mood has soured since the G20 Toronto summit in June and worry that unless the summit can patch up differences on trade imbalances and exchange rates, the outlook for international economic agreement is poor.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/03567a28-e8a3-11df-a383-00144feab49a.html#axzz14e1EFQ1Z
China has curtly dismissed a US proposal to address global economic imbalances, setting the stage for a potential showdown at next week’s G20 meeting in Seoul.
Cui Tiankai, a deputy foreign minister and one of China’s lead negotiators at the G20, said on Friday that the US plan for limiting current account surpluses and deficits to 4 per cent of gross domestic product harked back “to the days of planned economies”.
“We believe a discussion about a current account target misses the whole point,” he added, in the first official comment by a senior Chinese official on the subject. “If you look at the global economy, there are many issues that merit more attention – for example, the question of quantitative easing.”
China’s opposition to the proposal, which had made some progress at a G20 finance ministers’ meeting last month, came amid a continuing rumble of protest from around the world at the US Federal Reserve’s plan to pump an extra $600bn into financial markets.
Officials from China, Germany and South Africa on Friday added their voices to a chorus of complaint that the Fed’s return to so-called quantitative easing would create instability and worsen imbalances by triggering surges of capital into other currencies.
Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, has proposed using what the US refers to as current account “guidelines” to accelerate global rebalancing, partly as a way of changing the debate away from simply pressing China to allow faster appreciation in the renminbi.
But on Thursday and Friday, governments focused instead on the global impact of the Fed’s action. “With all due respect, US policy is clueless,” Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, told reporters. “It’s not that the Americans haven’t pumped enough liquidity into the market,” he said. “Now to say let’s pump more into the market is not going to solve their problems.”
Pravin Gordhan, finance minister of South Africa, a key member of the emerging market bloc, said the decision “undermines the spirit of multilateral co-operation that G20 leaders have fought so hard to maintain during the current crisis”, and ran counter to the pledge made by G20 finance ministers to refrain from uncoordinated responses.
Experts say the mood has soured since the G20 Toronto summit in June and worry that unless the summit can patch up differences on trade imbalances and exchange rates, the outlook for international economic agreement is poor.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/03567a28-e8a3-11df-a383-00144feab49a.html#axzz14e1EFQ1Z
Friday, November 5, 2010
Korea Would Aggressively Consider Curbing Capital Inflows
Korea strongly reacted to the U.S. QE2 hours after the U.S. Fed’s announcement of Quantitative Easing policy. Korea is hosting the G20 summit next week.
From CNBC:
South Korea on Thursday issued its strongest warning in months that it was close to taking steps aimed at curbing fund inflows, saying it would "aggressively" consider taking such measures.
The statement came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would buy back $600 billion of government bonds, a move that economists say will likely unleash further substantial capital flows into emerging markets like South Korea.
"The government believes it needs to turn away from the perception that controlling capital flows is always bad and consider introducing measures to improve the macroeconomic prudence," the Ministry of Strategy and Finance said in a statement.
Policymakers including Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun have repeatedly said that South Korea was studying steps to curb fund inflows but the country is hosting the Group of 20 summit next week and analysts say it will likely refrain from imposing strong controls at a time when it is urging not to manipulate markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39998421
From CNBC:
South Korea on Thursday issued its strongest warning in months that it was close to taking steps aimed at curbing fund inflows, saying it would "aggressively" consider taking such measures.
The statement came a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would buy back $600 billion of government bonds, a move that economists say will likely unleash further substantial capital flows into emerging markets like South Korea.
"The government believes it needs to turn away from the perception that controlling capital flows is always bad and consider introducing measures to improve the macroeconomic prudence," the Ministry of Strategy and Finance said in a statement.
Policymakers including Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun have repeatedly said that South Korea was studying steps to curb fund inflows but the country is hosting the Group of 20 summit next week and analysts say it will likely refrain from imposing strong controls at a time when it is urging not to manipulate markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39998421
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Zero Hedge: The Day After QE2
From Zero Hedge:
And while more and more try to educate a hypnotized, strategically defaulting US society what QE2 means to their future, the rest of the world is already rising in a tidal wave of disapproval aimed at the Federal Reserve. As the FT reports, Brazil, China, German, and Thailand, and soon everyone else, have already voiced thighest criticism and their condemnation of this escalation in FX wars.
China, Brazil and Germany on Thursday criticised the Fed’s action a day earlier, and a string of east Asian central banks said they were preparing measures to defend their economies against large capital inflows.
Guido Mantega, the Brazilian finance minister who was the first to warn of a “currency war”, said: “Everybody wants the US economy to recover, but it does no good at all to just throw dollars from a helicopter.”
Mr Mantega added: “You have to combine that with fiscal policy. You have to stimulate consumption.” Germany also expressed concern.
An adviser to the Chinese central bank called unbridled printing of dollars the biggest risk to the global economy and said China should use currency policy and capital controls to cushion itself from external shocks.
“As long as the world exercises no restraint in issuing global currencies such as the dollar – and this is not easy – then the occurrence of another crisis is inevitable, as quite a few wise Westerners lament,” Xia Bin wrote in a newspaper under the Chinese central bank.
Korn Chatikavanij, Thailand’s finance minister, said the Thai central bank had told him it was “in close talks” with regional central banks over measures “to prevent excessive speculation.”
The renewed tension is likely to complicate US efforts to get leaders of the world’s leading economies countries meeting in Seoul next week to press China to sign up to a new accord promising to limit current account balances.
Everyone now realizes that the most benign outcome of this act is the symbolic isolation of the US by the rest of the world. The outright isolation will come the second China, Germany and Russia announces they have come up with their own, commodity-backed currency.
Dan Price, partner at the law firm Sidley Austin and formerly George W. Bush’s White House representative at the G20, said: “The US may find it increasingly difficult to galvanize countries to push China on [renminbi] appreciation when many think the Fed’s quantitative easing policy is itself a major contributor to currency misalignment and imbalances.”
Neither the Federal Reserve nor the US Treasury commented on Thursday. The tension over exchange rates has created fears of a wave of protectionist trade and investment actions in response, a reaction that so far has been markedly absent from the global economy during the recession and recovery.
The World Trade Organisation, in association with other international institutions, released a regular report which said that new restrictions on trade, direct investment and capital flows had remained subdued.
At some point all Americans, no matter how engrossed with their facebook profile, will have to ask themselves: is preventing a few multibillionaires from suffering debt writedown losses a sufficient compensation for the trillions in incremental debt, for the conversion of America to the laughing stock of the world and its subsequent insolvency, and to the collapse of the standard of living of those 81% of Americans who barely have any stock market holdings, and thus benefit exactly zero from this action.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/qe2-day-after-entire-world-blasts-deranged-madmans-uncheckable-insanity
And while more and more try to educate a hypnotized, strategically defaulting US society what QE2 means to their future, the rest of the world is already rising in a tidal wave of disapproval aimed at the Federal Reserve. As the FT reports, Brazil, China, German, and Thailand, and soon everyone else, have already voiced thighest criticism and their condemnation of this escalation in FX wars.
China, Brazil and Germany on Thursday criticised the Fed’s action a day earlier, and a string of east Asian central banks said they were preparing measures to defend their economies against large capital inflows.
Guido Mantega, the Brazilian finance minister who was the first to warn of a “currency war”, said: “Everybody wants the US economy to recover, but it does no good at all to just throw dollars from a helicopter.”
Mr Mantega added: “You have to combine that with fiscal policy. You have to stimulate consumption.” Germany also expressed concern.
An adviser to the Chinese central bank called unbridled printing of dollars the biggest risk to the global economy and said China should use currency policy and capital controls to cushion itself from external shocks.
“As long as the world exercises no restraint in issuing global currencies such as the dollar – and this is not easy – then the occurrence of another crisis is inevitable, as quite a few wise Westerners lament,” Xia Bin wrote in a newspaper under the Chinese central bank.
Korn Chatikavanij, Thailand’s finance minister, said the Thai central bank had told him it was “in close talks” with regional central banks over measures “to prevent excessive speculation.”
The renewed tension is likely to complicate US efforts to get leaders of the world’s leading economies countries meeting in Seoul next week to press China to sign up to a new accord promising to limit current account balances.
Everyone now realizes that the most benign outcome of this act is the symbolic isolation of the US by the rest of the world. The outright isolation will come the second China, Germany and Russia announces they have come up with their own, commodity-backed currency.
Dan Price, partner at the law firm Sidley Austin and formerly George W. Bush’s White House representative at the G20, said: “The US may find it increasingly difficult to galvanize countries to push China on [renminbi] appreciation when many think the Fed’s quantitative easing policy is itself a major contributor to currency misalignment and imbalances.”
Neither the Federal Reserve nor the US Treasury commented on Thursday. The tension over exchange rates has created fears of a wave of protectionist trade and investment actions in response, a reaction that so far has been markedly absent from the global economy during the recession and recovery.
The World Trade Organisation, in association with other international institutions, released a regular report which said that new restrictions on trade, direct investment and capital flows had remained subdued.
At some point all Americans, no matter how engrossed with their facebook profile, will have to ask themselves: is preventing a few multibillionaires from suffering debt writedown losses a sufficient compensation for the trillions in incremental debt, for the conversion of America to the laughing stock of the world and its subsequent insolvency, and to the collapse of the standard of living of those 81% of Americans who barely have any stock market holdings, and thus benefit exactly zero from this action.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/qe2-day-after-entire-world-blasts-deranged-madmans-uncheckable-insanity
Bernanke: QE2 Is Intended to Boost Stock Prices
From Bloomberg:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said resuming large-scale asset purchases should boost economic growth through lower borrowing costs and higher stock prices and that concerns about the strategy are “overstated.”
“This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again,” Bernanke said today in an opinion article for the Washington Post released hours after the Fed announced the $600 billion of Treasury buying through June in a second round of unconventional monetary stimulus.
“Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate this additional action,” Bernanke said. “Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth.”
Bernanke said that low and falling inflation indicates that the economy has many idle resources and that further monetary policy efforts will not cause the economy to overheat.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-03/bernanke-says-new-purchases-should-aid-economic-growth-with-lower-rates.html
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said resuming large-scale asset purchases should boost economic growth through lower borrowing costs and higher stock prices and that concerns about the strategy are “overstated.”
“This approach eased financial conditions in the past and, so far, looks to be effective again,” Bernanke said today in an opinion article for the Washington Post released hours after the Fed announced the $600 billion of Treasury buying through June in a second round of unconventional monetary stimulus.
“Stock prices rose and long-term interest rates fell when investors began to anticipate this additional action,” Bernanke said. “Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth.”
Bernanke said that low and falling inflation indicates that the economy has many idle resources and that further monetary policy efforts will not cause the economy to overheat.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-03/bernanke-says-new-purchases-should-aid-economic-growth-with-lower-rates.html
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
The U.S. Fed Announces QE2: The Fed Poised to Buy $600 Billion in Bonds
The U.S. seems to learn nothing from Japan which has engaged in QE for the last 20 years.
We all know that this is not the end of QE; there will be further QE by the Fed.
From Market Watch:
The Federal Open Market Committee of the central bank said it would buy up to $600 billion in long-term Treasurys until the end of June 2011, including about $75 billion this month, in a strategy called quantitative easing. It also indicated it would spend roughly $35 billion a month reinvesting the proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities into government bonds.
This is the second time the Fed has engaged in quantitative easing, as it snapped up $1.7 trillion in mostly housing-related assets between December 2008 and March 2010.
The Fed purchases are designed to bring down yields on government bonds believing that lower rates could always give the recovery a boost.
More broadly, the Federal Reserve wants to prompt private businesses and investors to begin to act with more confidence and help get the economy’s juices flowing.
Doubts persist about whether the plan will work, but many feel the Fed had little choice but to act.
The Fed’s favorite policy tool, the target federal funds rate for interbank lending, has been about as low as it can go, in a range between zero and 0.25%, since December 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-to-buy-600-billion-in-government-bonds-2010-11-03
We all know that this is not the end of QE; there will be further QE by the Fed.
From Market Watch:
The Federal Open Market Committee of the central bank said it would buy up to $600 billion in long-term Treasurys until the end of June 2011, including about $75 billion this month, in a strategy called quantitative easing. It also indicated it would spend roughly $35 billion a month reinvesting the proceeds of maturing mortgage-backed securities into government bonds.
This is the second time the Fed has engaged in quantitative easing, as it snapped up $1.7 trillion in mostly housing-related assets between December 2008 and March 2010.
The Fed purchases are designed to bring down yields on government bonds believing that lower rates could always give the recovery a boost.
More broadly, the Federal Reserve wants to prompt private businesses and investors to begin to act with more confidence and help get the economy’s juices flowing.
Doubts persist about whether the plan will work, but many feel the Fed had little choice but to act.
The Fed’s favorite policy tool, the target federal funds rate for interbank lending, has been about as low as it can go, in a range between zero and 0.25%, since December 2008.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-to-buy-600-billion-in-government-bonds-2010-11-03
Monday, November 1, 2010
Samsung and Sony Face New Contention over Pricing
Of course one has to understand this news in the context of the U.S. QE2 and export economies’ FX interventions.
From Bloomberg:
Sony Corp. gave up yesterday on a goal to profit from televisions this fiscal year and Panasonic Corp. forecast price drops will deepen this quarter. Earlier, Samsung Electronics Co. predicted “severe” competition for the year-end season, echoing comments from LG Electronics Inc. a day earlier.
Projections from the world’s four largest TV makers signal the industry will fail to capitalize on the biggest sales quarter of the year, with some analysts predicting price declines of as much as 25 percent in 2010. Companies from Microsoft Corp. to Intel Corp. are increasingly counting on corporate demand as consumers are reluctant to shop.
“There’s going to be a price war this Christmas season and there’s no way around that,” said Tsutomu Yamada, a market analyst at kabu.com Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The whole strategy this year is ‘sell earlier and sell for less.’ That makes life miserable for the manufacturers.”
TV makers were betting earlier this year that pricier LED TVs with brighter screens or 3-D sets would keep prices from falling the typical 20 percent to 25 percent annually, according to Atul Goyal, a senior research analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Singapore. That bet hasn’t materialized as pessimism has increased recently and shoppers in the U.S. aren’t willing to pay extra for higher quality sets.
U.S. retailers such as Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are sweetening discounts ahead of the holiday season to move merchandise as joblessness hovers near a 26-year high. Target, the second-biggest discount retailer behind Wal-Mart, said this month it would lower prices on more than 1,000 toys to attract shoppers. Wal-Mart responded with its own discounts.
Sony Chief Financial Officer Masaru Kato said yesterday the maker of Bravia TVs is forecasting a loss from the business this fiscal year and the company is bracing for “harsh” competition. Sales of 3-D sets, projected to account for 10 percent of the 25 million annual TV target, are trailing Sony’s previous expectations, he said.
Panasonic, the world’s biggest maker of plasma TVs, said yesterday falling prices, the stronger yen and more expensive raw materials prevented the maker of Viera TVs from raising its full-year profit forecast even though earnings during the first half exceeded the company’s projections. The yen trading near a 15-year high against the dollar isn’t helping.
“The strong yen will be a major hurdle in the TV business in the second half,” Hideaki Kawai, the executive officer in charge of finance and accounting at Panasonic, said in Osaka yesterday. “It’s an extremely severe situation.”
South Korea’s Samsung and LG, the world’s two-biggest TV makers, have voiced similar concerns after the advantage of having a weaker won, the worst-performing major Asian currency from April to June, dissipated. The won’s 5.3 percent gain against the dollar since September makes it the region’s best performer during the period.
Samsung yesterday forecast earnings are poised to fall from their record high in the three months ended Sept. 30 and said competition in the TV market will be “severe” during the fourth quarter.
“We expect increased oversupply and price declines in the memory market, as well we possible further declines in LCD panels,” said Robert Yi, vice president of investor relations at Samsung. “Combining these with a possible appreciation of the won, we expect the overall fourth-quarter business conditions to be difficult.”
Fourth-quarter prices of LG sets will probably fall as much as 8 percent from the preceding three-month period, as TV makers clear mounting inventory, Chief Financial Officer David Jung said on Oct. 28.
“The Christmas season makes or breaks you and this year you’ve got unemployment and deflation,” said Yamada of kabu.com Securities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-29/sony-samsung-brace-for-miserable-christmas-sales-as-tv-price-war-looms.html
From Bloomberg:
Sony Corp. gave up yesterday on a goal to profit from televisions this fiscal year and Panasonic Corp. forecast price drops will deepen this quarter. Earlier, Samsung Electronics Co. predicted “severe” competition for the year-end season, echoing comments from LG Electronics Inc. a day earlier.
Projections from the world’s four largest TV makers signal the industry will fail to capitalize on the biggest sales quarter of the year, with some analysts predicting price declines of as much as 25 percent in 2010. Companies from Microsoft Corp. to Intel Corp. are increasingly counting on corporate demand as consumers are reluctant to shop.
“There’s going to be a price war this Christmas season and there’s no way around that,” said Tsutomu Yamada, a market analyst at kabu.com Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The whole strategy this year is ‘sell earlier and sell for less.’ That makes life miserable for the manufacturers.”
TV makers were betting earlier this year that pricier LED TVs with brighter screens or 3-D sets would keep prices from falling the typical 20 percent to 25 percent annually, according to Atul Goyal, a senior research analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Singapore. That bet hasn’t materialized as pessimism has increased recently and shoppers in the U.S. aren’t willing to pay extra for higher quality sets.
U.S. retailers such as Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are sweetening discounts ahead of the holiday season to move merchandise as joblessness hovers near a 26-year high. Target, the second-biggest discount retailer behind Wal-Mart, said this month it would lower prices on more than 1,000 toys to attract shoppers. Wal-Mart responded with its own discounts.
Sony Chief Financial Officer Masaru Kato said yesterday the maker of Bravia TVs is forecasting a loss from the business this fiscal year and the company is bracing for “harsh” competition. Sales of 3-D sets, projected to account for 10 percent of the 25 million annual TV target, are trailing Sony’s previous expectations, he said.
Panasonic, the world’s biggest maker of plasma TVs, said yesterday falling prices, the stronger yen and more expensive raw materials prevented the maker of Viera TVs from raising its full-year profit forecast even though earnings during the first half exceeded the company’s projections. The yen trading near a 15-year high against the dollar isn’t helping.
“The strong yen will be a major hurdle in the TV business in the second half,” Hideaki Kawai, the executive officer in charge of finance and accounting at Panasonic, said in Osaka yesterday. “It’s an extremely severe situation.”
South Korea’s Samsung and LG, the world’s two-biggest TV makers, have voiced similar concerns after the advantage of having a weaker won, the worst-performing major Asian currency from April to June, dissipated. The won’s 5.3 percent gain against the dollar since September makes it the region’s best performer during the period.
Samsung yesterday forecast earnings are poised to fall from their record high in the three months ended Sept. 30 and said competition in the TV market will be “severe” during the fourth quarter.
“We expect increased oversupply and price declines in the memory market, as well we possible further declines in LCD panels,” said Robert Yi, vice president of investor relations at Samsung. “Combining these with a possible appreciation of the won, we expect the overall fourth-quarter business conditions to be difficult.”
Fourth-quarter prices of LG sets will probably fall as much as 8 percent from the preceding three-month period, as TV makers clear mounting inventory, Chief Financial Officer David Jung said on Oct. 28.
“The Christmas season makes or breaks you and this year you’ve got unemployment and deflation,” said Yamada of kabu.com Securities.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-29/sony-samsung-brace-for-miserable-christmas-sales-as-tv-price-war-looms.html
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