Rosenberg: 99% Chance of Another Recession by 2012

According to David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, there is a 99% chance of another recession by 2012.

In a Bloomberg video:

I think that by 2012, I would give it a 99% chance. I say that because as an economist, you have to be part historian. When you have a manufacturing inventory cycle recession, they are usually separated 5 years apart. But when you have a balance sheet recession, credit contraction, asset deflation (for example residential real estate), the downturn tends to be separated every 2 to 2.5 years. ... Economists call this a soft patch. It's not like this is a soft patch. Basically, when all the stimulus is gone, you get to see what the emperor looks like disrobed. It's not a pretty picture.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnfoUtVB-nw