Thursday, October 6, 2011

IMF Advisor: We Face a Worldwide Financial Meltdown

From Zero Hedge:

In an interview with IMF advisor Robert Shapiro, the bailout expert has pretty much said what, once again, is on everyone's mind: "If they can not address [the financial crisis] in a credible way I believe within perhaps 2 to 3 weeks we will have a meltdown in sovereign debt which will produce a meltdown across the European banking system. We are not just talking about a relatively small Belgian bank, we are talking about the largest banks in the world, the largest banks in Germany, the largest banks in France, that will spread to the United Kingdom, it will spread everywhere because the global financial system is so interconnected. All those banks are counterparties to every significant bank in the United States, and in Britain, and in Japan, and around the world. This would be a crisis that would be in my view more serrious than the crisis in 2008.... What we don't know the state of credit default swaps held by banks against sovereign debt and against European banks, nor do we know the state of CDS held by British banks, nor are we certain of how certain the exposure of British banks is to the Ireland sovereign debt problems."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bbc-does-it-again-absence-credible-plan-we-will-have-global-financial-meltdown-two-three-weeks-

Steve Jobs Has Passed Away

May he rest in peace.

Some Quotes from Steve Jobs:

"Innovation has nothing to do with how many R&D dollars you have. When Apple came up with the Mac, IBM was spending at least 100 times more on R&D. It’s not about money. It’s about the people you have, how you’re led, and how much you get it."

“Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.”

“I didn’t see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.”

"The cure for Apple is not cost-cutting. The cure for Apple is to innovate its way out of its current predicament.” (1999)

"Almost everything -- all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure -- these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart."

“Do you want to spend the rest of your life selling sugared water, or do you want a chance to change the world?”

Some comments on his life posted on Zero Hedge:

Fukushima Sam wrote:

Most of ZH disagrees with central planning. Apple is probably the most secretive and authoritarian central planner of the IT industry. Jobs created some great things, but the way they were implemented were anathema to the founding spirit of the Internet, which believes in free and equal access for all. Jobs was the quintessential late Boomer; idealistic and creative as a youth, a tyrant in mid-life. Like the rest of the Boomers Jobs was always convinced of the superiority of his vision, and once he had the power to implement it he did so without compassion and a "ends justifies the means" mentality.

I would say that most ZH readers view Jobs as I do; with a certain respect for his innovations and accomplishments and an absolute dismay for most of the results.

Cynical Sidney wrote:

steve jobs lived in a time when corporations did NOT engage in massive anti-competitive practices like patent abuse, to kill all competition. the 'internet' was not copyrighted, apple/microsoft was not sued for taking ideas from xerox os/unix commandline os, and there were no patent wars between apple and samsung. steve lived in a time when apple didn't try to control every aspect of the user experience, when the youth of their generation had great mobility to freely innovate, there were no leveraged buyouts to rob genius creations from their creators, so anyone could start a business from their garage without the support of VC.

fast forward 35 years, what steve did is just not possible in the world we live in today.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-if-you-want-more-jobs-look-steve-jobs

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Robert Reich: Behind Europe’s Debt Crisis Lurks Another Giant Bailout of Wall Street

Dr. Reich is a public policy professor at U.C.Berkeley.

From his blog:

The Street has lent only about $7 billion to Greece, as of the end of last year, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That’s no big deal.

But a default by Greece or any other of Europe’s debt-burdened nations could easily pummel German and French banks, which have lent Greece (and the other wobbly European countries) far more.

That’s where Wall Street comes in. Big Wall Street banks have lent German and French banks a bundle.

The Street’s total exposure to the euro zone totals about $2.7 trillion. Its exposure to to France and Germany accounts for nearly half the total.

And it’s not just Wall Street’s loans to German and French banks that are worrisome. Wall Street has also insured or bet on all sorts of derivatives emanating from Europe – on energy, currency, interest rates, and foreign exchange swaps. If a German or French bank goes down, the ripple effects are incalculable.

Get it? Follow the money: If Greece goes down, investors start fleeing Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Portugal as well. All of this sends big French and German banks reeling. If one of these banks collapses, or show signs of major strain, Wall Street is in big trouble. Possibly even bigger trouble than it was in after Lehman Brothers went down.

That’s why shares of the biggest U.S. banks have been falling for the past month. Morgan Stanley closed Monday at its lowest since December 2008 – and the cost of insuring Morgan’s debt has jumped to levels not seen since November 2008.

It’s rumored that Morgan could lose as much as $30 billion if some French and German banks fail. (That’s from Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, which tracks all cross-border exposure of major banks.)

$30 billion is roughly $2 billion more than the assets Morgan owns (in terms of current market capitalization.)

But Morgan says its exposure to French banks is zero. Why the discrepancy? Morgan has probably taken out insurance against its loans to European banks, as well as collateral from them. So Morgan feels as if it’s not exposed.

But does anyone remember something spelled AIG? That was the giant insurance firm that went bust when Wall Street began going under. Wall Street thought it had insured its bets with AIG. Turned out, AIG couldn’t pay up.

Haven’t we been here before?

Republicans and Wall Street executives who continue to yell about Dodd-Frank overkill are dead wrong. The fact no one seems to know Morgan’s exposure to European banks or derivatives – or that of most other giant Wall Street banks – shows Dodd-Frank didn’t go nearly far enough.

Regulators still don’t know what’s happening on the Street. They have no clear picture of the derivatives exposure of giant U.S. financial institutions.

Which is why Washington officials are terrified – and why Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner keeps begging European officials to bail out Greece and the other deeply-indebted European nations.

Several months ago, when the European debt crisis first became apparent, Wall Street banks said not to worry. They had little or no exposure to Europe’s problems. The Federal Reserve said the same. In July, Ben Bernanke reassured Congress the exposure of U.S. banks to European nations in trouble was “quite small.”

Now we’re hearing a different tune.

Make no mistake. The United States wants Europe to bail out its deeply indebted nations so they can repay what they owe big European banks. Otherwise, those banks could implode taking Wall Street with them.

One of the many ironies here is some badly-indebted European nations (Ireland is the best example) went deeply into debt in the first place bailing out their banks from the crisis that began on Wall Street.

Full circle.

In other words, Greece isn’t the real problem. Nor is Ireland, Italy, Portugal, or Spain. The real problem is the financial system - centered on Wall Street. And we still haven’t solved it.


http://robertreich.org/post/11033625495

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Jim Quinn: What the U.S. Needs Now Is Hope

From Burning Platform:

Millions of middle class citizens in the U.S. sink deeper into despair every day. Day by day hope is being lost that the future for our children will be better than our past. The political, financial, and corporate leaders of our country are intellectually and morally bankrupt. The major Wall Street banks are bankrupt. Social Security is bankrupt. Medicare is bankrupt. The whole damned world is bankrupt. Anyone with an unbiased view of our planet would conclude that we are in unfathomable danger. The list of impending catastrophic issues that will blow up the world for millions in the U.S. and across the globe is virtually endless...

When I started to detail the issues facing our country today, I expected to come up with 10 to 20 bullet points of key concerns. As I methodically worked through the categories of challenges facing the American Empire, the total reached 76 bullet points. The facts as presented above paint a picture of impending doom for America. The slogans and vapid “solutions” proposed by political candidates and entrenched Washington politicians do not even scratch the surface of what would need to be done to save this country from economic collapse. Many of these problems took decades to create and are not solvable in a reasonable time frame. With the country still delusion, overleveraged, and underemployed, it seems like the existing economic and social structure will need to be blown up to restore hope in this country.


http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=22172

U.S.- China Currency and Trade Wars: China Adamantly Opposes U.S. Currency Bill & Warns of Trade War If It Passes

As noted, for mercantilist countries like China, the currency matter is one of the sovereign matters. China is not the cause of America’s downfall. The peg has been there for a reason. It has to end at some point. Both countries have screwed over their own people (most citizens). Again, we are at the early stage of the global depression. This is not a cyclical recession.

From Reuters:

China warned Washington it is "adamantly opposed" to a proposed U.S. bill aimed at forcing Beijing to let its currency rise, saying its passage could lead to a trade war between the world's top two economies.

In a coordinated response, the Chinese central bank and the ministries of commerce and foreign affairs accused Washington of "politicizing" global currency issues.

The bill to be debated in the United States this week violates World Trade Organization rules and forcing the yuan to appreciate would weaken joint efforts to revive the global economy, the foreign ministry said.

"By using the excuse of a so-called 'currency imbalance', this will escalate the exchange rate issue, adopting a protectionist measure that gravely violates WTO rules and seriously upsets Sino-U.S. trade and economic relations," foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said in a statement posted on China's official government website (www.gov.cn) on Tuesday.

U.S. senators voted on Monday to open a week of debate on the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011, which would allow the U.S. government to slap countervailing duties on products from countries found to be subsidizing their exports by undervaluing their currencies.

U.S. lawmakers, eyeing 2012 elections, said the undervaluing of China's currency had cost American jobs and that a fairer exchange rate would help cut an annual trade gap of $250 billion.

Ma urged U.S. legislators to "proceed from the broader picture of Sino-U.S. trade and economic cooperation" and "forsake protectionism."

He repeated Beijing's position that it will continue to gradually reform its currency policy, "strengthening the flexibility of the renminbi exchange rate."

China's central bank said in a statement that the bill failed to address the underlying issues in the U.S. economy.

"The yuan bill passed by the U.S. senate will not solve its problems, such as insufficient savings, high trade deficit and high unemployment rate, but it may seriously affect the whole progress of China's reform of its yuan exchange rate regime and may also lead to a trade war which we would not like to see."

China's currency has appreciated 7 percent since June 2010, when the central bank decided to adopt a more flexible exchange rate, said foreign minister spokesman Ma, adding that Beijing would continue "proactive" and "gradual" reform.

The central bank added that Chinese inflation had already pushed the real yuan exchange rate further "toward the equilibrium."

Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said the United States was trying to pass on the blame for its own failings.

"Trying to turn domestic disputes onto another country is both unfair and in violation of standard international rules, and China expresses its concern," he said in a statement issued on the ministry's website.

Shen said any move by the United States to force the yuan to appreciate would undermine joint efforts to revive global economic growth, which took another blow on Monday with data showing that global manufacturing shrank in September for the first time in over two years.

"It will weaken China-U.S. efforts to join hands and together promote global economic recovery," he said. "The global economic is in a complex, sensitive and changeable period, and so even more needs a stable international monetary environment."

The Senate decision was a sign that China was being made a scapegoat by struggling western economies, said Wang Jun, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

"Maybe the United States will not be the only and last country to do so. With the worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis, we must also be on high alert that euro zone countries could also press China on the exchange rate issue.

"We need to launch some pre-emptive measures to hit back against any more attacks," Wang said.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/04/us-usa-china-currency-idUSTRE7911TD20111004

Monday, October 3, 2011

U.S. Closes 2010-2011 Fiscal Year with the Unprecedented $14,790,340,328,557.15 in Debt

From Zero Hedge:

America has now officially closed the books on the 2010-2011 fiscal year. It is only fitting that the last day of the year saw the settlement of all outstanding and recently auctioned off debt. The result: a surge of $95 billion in total government debt overnight, and a fiscal year closing with the absolutely unprecedented $14,790,340,328,557.15 in debt. Net net, in the past fiscal year, the US has issued a total of $1.228 trillion in new debt and has accelerated over time. At a rate of $125 billion per month, total US debt to GDP will pass 100% in just over a month. Incidentally, one may inquire about the benefits of centrally planned fiscal stimulus (cough Solyndra cough): the US economy added over 3$ trillion in debt in the past two years and the stock market is almost back to where it was back then. Perhaps it is about time someone demanded that all those lunatics who say that issuing debt for the sake of growth (and pushing the S&P higher of course) be finally locked away in perpetuity, and the key dropped into the deepest volcano in Mordor.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-closes-2010-2011-fiscal-year-1479034032855715-debt-95-billion-jump-day-12-trillion-increase-

Update:

From Zero Hedge:

US Starts New Fiscal Year With $14.837 Trillion In Debt, $142 Billion Increase In Two Days

Anyone tearing their hair out trying to answer how it is that this great Keynesian experiment of a nation managed to sneek by with so little new incremental debt over the past month can now relax. As Zero Hedge reported yesterday, the US closed out Fiscal 2010-2011 with a $95 billion surge in debt in one day brining the total to just under $14.8 trillion. That, however was not nearly enough to settle all outstanding debt, and on the first day of the next fiscal year, Timmy G added another $47 billion in debt, to have a closing balance of $14.837 trillion on the first day of the 2011-2012 fiscal year. In other words, in just the past two work days, America has technically settled a whopping $142 billion in debt. There was a time when a year was needed to issue this much debt. Then, a month. Now, we are officialy down to two days. What is ironic is that the recently expanded debt ceiling of $15.194 trillion has just $400 billion of additional dry powder. At this rate, it won't last the US until the end of the calendar year.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-starts-news-fiscal-year-14837-trillion-debt-142-billion-increase-two-days

Update:

From Zero Hedge:

Total US Debt Update: $14.86 Trillion; $162 Billion Increase In Three Days; 98.9% Debt/GDP

Little to say here: total debt is now at, obviously, a new record high of $14,856,859,498,405.73, which is a $20 billion increase overnight, $67 billion in the past two days, and $162 billion in the last three days. We will repeat the last part: total US debt has increased by $162 billion in three days. Said otherwise, total US Debt/GDP is now 98.9%. Please carry on.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/total-us-debt-update-1486-trillion-162-billion-increase-three-days

Sunday, October 2, 2011

“If you have any fellowship in Christ, any solace in love, any consolation in the spirit, any compassion and mercy, complete my joy by being of the same mind, with the same love, united in heart, thinking in harmony, do nothing out of selfishness, out of vanity or pride; rather, in humility regard others as more important than yourselves, with each of you looking out not for his own interests only, but also for those of others.”
Philippians 2:1-2

기도 속에 결정해야 할 일들에 대해 인도하여 주시고 판단에 함께 하여 주시기를, 여정 중에 같이 하여주시기를 간구하곤 하는데 이번 주에 든 생각 중의 하나가 영어로 책 쓰는 작업과 더불어 한국말로도 아주 쉽게 독자들이 읽을 수 있는 책을 쓸 필요성이 있지 않느냐는 것이다. 왜냐하면 한국이 같은 정책 실패를 반복하지 않고 외세에 휘둘리지 않고 독자적인 평화와 번영, 또 국민들의 안녕이 지속되려면 critical mass가 올바른 교육을 받아서 enlightened 되는 것이 중요하기 때문이다. 그래야지 올바른 리더들이 사회를 이끌어 갈 수 있는 토대가 마련될 수 있다. 사실 더 이상 한국말로 책을 쓸 생각이 없었다. 발간 한 책 중 개정판을 내기로 해서 올해 말까지 원고 써 달라고 요청을 받았는데 조금 밖에 진행을 못 한 상태이다. 대학 교재로 팔리는 책인데 개정판 내자는 출판사 요청을 번번이 거절해 다른 저자에게 부탁해 새 책을 낸 모양인데 반응이 좋질 않아 다시금 전화를 주셨기에 원고 작업을 하겠다고 약속을 했는데…

지난 봄 이래 블로그에 한국으로부터 들어오는 트래픽이 꽤 늘었다고 얘기한 적이 있다. 특히 정기적으로 들어와 주시는 분들이 클릭하시는 포스팅들을 볼 때 현 상황을 잘 이해하시고 영어가 자유롭고 전문직에 종사하시는 분들이 아닌가 싶다. 개개인의 안녕이 사회적 안녕과 직결된다는 것을 우리는 역사를 통해 알고 있다. 내 블로그를 방문해 주시는 분들이 본인들의 안녕을 위해서라도 국민 대다수가 현실에 대한 정확한 인식과 통찰을 할 수 있게 무언가를 하셨으면 하는 소망을 품어본다. 내가 블로그를 운영하고 있는 이유 중의 하나이다. 여러 가지 이유에서 영어로 쓰고 있다 보니 읽을 수 있는 분들이 제한적이라 언젠가는 한국말로 아주 쉽게 지금 블로그에 쓰고 있는 주제들을 책으로 내는 게 좋지 않을까.(예를 들어 급속한 경제성장이 가져온 득과 실, 수출 위주 경제개발 정책의 문제점, 재벌위주 산업정책의 장기적 손실, IMF 위기 이후의 잘못된 정책들, 제조와 혁신을 바탕으로 한 생산적 역량이 한국경제 발전의 원동력이었는데 이것이 무엇으로 대체되고 있는가, 한국기업들이 하이테크 경쟁력을 어떻게 축적했으며 어떤 도전을 맞고 있는가, 왜 한국의 기술집약적 중소기업들이 어려움을 겪어왔는가, 생산적 역량이 국가 경제의 기반일진대 이를 어떻게 키울 것인가, 왜 아시아 국가들이 미국과의 특이한 관계를 통해서 급성장을 할 수 있었는가, 일본은 한국과 중국의 경제모델이 되었는데 왜 쇠퇴하게 되었는가, 미국경제가 어떻게 해서 오늘날의 난관에 봉착했는가, 중국이 어떤 발전 경로를 거치고 있으며 어디로 가고 있는가 등등)

블로그에 글을 올리는 것은 하나님의 사랑을 실천하려는 작은 몸짓이다. 지난 7월에 블로그에 글 쓰는 것을 중단하리라 생각한 적이 있었다. 그러다가 깨달았던 것이 이것도 인도하심이 있지 않느냐는 것이었다. 어떤 형태로든 사회에 기여해야 한다는 생각은 20대부터 줄곧 해왔고 기도 해 온 내용이다. 30대부터 책을 낸 것도 이러한 맥락에서였다. 다행히 글 쓰는 것을 좋아하고, 후에 부끄럽지 않은 좋은 책을 쓰고 싶다는 생각을 많이 하고 있다. 한국여자로서 동양과 서양 양쪽에서 교육을 받고 일을 할 수 있었던 경험은 하늘의 은총과 축복이 있었기 때문이고 이를 한국과 다른 나라들에게도 도움이 되는 의미있는 일에 써야 한다는 생각에는 변함이 없다.

하나님의 사상과 복음을 한마디로 요약한다면 사랑이라 생각한다. 이러한 하나님의 사랑을 삶에서 실천하신 고 김인수 교수님이나 고 이태석 신부님은 참으로 예외적인 귀하신 분들이셨다.